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Fish Farm Report: Hitters in Lower End of Marlins System Showing Promise

June 8, 2013 in Fish Farm

Looks like the future is starting to get bright. With the infusion of talent at the MLB level that is, well, young and inexperienced, things down in the lower leagues are starting to solidify in exciting ways. At AA Jacksonville, A Jupiter, and even Low A Greensboro, talent is starting to shine in particularly in the batter’s box. Let’s take a look.

Jacksonville (AA)

For obvious reasons, we are not going to look at Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick – both players are eventually going to get time in the bigs as earlier as this season. For Yelich, that call may come in the next few weeks. Instead we are going to consider which players, moving forward, provide some interest in seeing how they develop.

Mark Canha – (1B) Although hitting 25 HRs a few years ago put him right on the fast track to the bigs, Canha’s power dipped a bit last season to only 6 HRs at High A Jupiter. He did raise his average, however, to .293. Now at AA Jacksonville, he has a modest .247/.325/.393 slash line to go with 4 HRs. It seems the power is creeping back, but with inconsistent play (Logan Morrison currently on rehab in JAX) his numbers still aren’t quite where they need to be. He is 8/27 over his last 10 games (.296) and once LoMo gets returned to Miami, look to see if Canha can continue to progress as a hitter with consistent ABs.

Zack Cox – (3B) Acquired from the Cards as part of the Mujica deal last year, Cox was cited as being one of the better hitters in college when drafted. He has not really lived up to that billing but with the Marlins, he is showing signs of production. Currently he is hitting .318/.423/.391 which although it shows he is making contact, his power numbers just aren’t there. Literally, he has yet to hit a home run. Yet of his 35 hits so far, 6 are doubles and he has a low K rate with only 23 in 110 ABs. The plate discipline seems to be back as he refines his hitting approach. The question is will he hit with any power and at this point, he doesn’t project to do so. Still, he is surfacing as a solid 3B prospect for the Marlins who are in desperate need of one – will Cox outlast Colin Moran, though? Stay tuned.

Ryan Fisher – (3B) Another 3B prospect who had 18 HRs a few seasons back and was drafted out of college. Has yet to show that power, but he does seem to be returning to form a bit despite the promotion to AA Jacksonville where he is playing behind Zack Cox. Fisher does have a bigger frame than Cox (6’3″ to 5’11″) and so will project to possibly hit with more power but not as much contact. Either way you look at it, the Marlins have some middle-grade prospects at 3B to go along with Colin Moran. If Cox gets promoted to AAA, look for Fisher to get more ABs and see what kinds of numbers he generates.

Jupiter (A)

Jupiter just does not have the power numbers you would want from a A affiliate. The dimensions of the field are pretty expansive and that may provide a bit of a hurdle. That said, we are looking at prospects that make solid contact in the advanced A system who could expect a promotion depending on what direction the Marlins take at AA.

Austin Barnes – (C) You already know that we like this guy, he is a solid hitter with a .313/.388/.427 slash line. May not stay behind the plate for long and could figure into conversion as a 2B. May be a bat without a position but deserves a look at AA.

Brent Keys – (CF) A light-hitting OF without tremendous speed but seems to do all of the little things well. Has an impressive .347/.419/.397 slash line which means he projects as a top of the order guy at best with high OBP. His career numbers show that he will hit for a high average and not strike out too much. Not much power available at A Jupiter from the prospects stationed there, but Keys does show an ability to get on base and get hits. With the current prospects in the OF in front of Keys, not much to tell at this point in terms or projection.

Greensboro (A)

There is a lot of raw hitting talent here now. The following should get promotions to see how they fare with advanced pitching at A Jupiter and to see if their numbers hold up there.

Jesus Solorzano – (OF) This kid is showing not only power but tremendous speed while manning the OF. He has 6 HRs and 16 SBs and is hitting .272/.329/.432 while amassing 51Ks vs. 15BBs. He could be a strong OF prospect moving forward as Yelich and Marisnick eventually make the jumps to the big league level.

Viosergy Rosa – (1B) Right now he is in a bit of a slump but he has shown very favorable power on the season thus far with 12 HRs. Although that jumps out at you, his plate discipline seems to be pretty solid as well. He has 54Ks with 31 BBs in his 211 ABs while hitting .256/.359/.483. While the Marlins have a lot of 1B laying around the big league level at the moment (Logan Morrison, Casey Kotchman, Joe Mahoney), Rosa will get time to mature his approach at the plate and fine tune his defense as well. Right now he is showing solid power at his position and if he can continue to develop plate discipline, he could be a hitter worth noting moving forward.

Cameron Flynn – (RF) Not showing much speed or power, Flynn continues to hit and impress. Currently he has a .353/.437/.485 slash line with a .922 OPS and in 136 ABs he has only 25 Ks against 18 BBs with 48 hits. He puts the ball in play and gets a larger percentage of those translated into hits. He may prove to be a strong candidate for a leadoff type hitter down the road.

Yordy Cabrera – (SS) Acquired in a trade with the A’s, Cabrera may end up playing 3B down the road. This gives the Marlins two prospects for their 3B vacancy (along with recently drafted Colin Moran) which could emerge as quickly as 2014 or 2015. Cabrera is providing some excitement as he has raised his numbers from his previous years across board. He currently is hitting .244/.326/.420 with 8 HRs. His plate discipline seems to be improving (46 Ks and 18 BBs) as well. If he can keep this up, a call up is very much in line for this season.

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Fish Farm: Hitters Turning Heads at AA Jacksonville

April 23, 2013 in Fish Farm

It may not be who you expected. There are some hitters that are turning heads at AA Jacksonville, but it isn’t the big three OFers in Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, or Jake Marisnick. Yelich is working his way back from injury, as is Ozuna, and Marisnick is still waiting to be cleared to play.

No, it is names like Derek Dietrich, Zack Cox, Kyle Jensen, and Mark Canha who are showing some need for a promotion.

Derek Dietrich, acquired in Yunel Escobar trade with the Tampa Bay Rays back in December, is logging time at 2B. He is currently hitting .288 with a .440 OBP, .492 SLG, and .932 OPS. Brought along in the Rays system as a SS, he has been slid over to 2B and could possibly convert to 3B if he continues to hit. The Marlins do have an immediate need for a 3B but even with Donovan Solano struggling a bit, Dietrich just may get a longer look at 2B, too.

Dietrich is not the only former college stud to be cruising along right now – Zack Cox, acquired in the Edward Mujica trade with the Cardinals back in July of last season, is heating up. He currently is batting .340 with a .453 OBP, .453 SLG, and a .906 OPS. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .355 with 11 hits in 31 ABs and only 4 Ks. He is manning 3B and if his offense can continue to improve, he may play his way up to the big leagues soon, or at least get a call up to face AAA pitching. He hasn’t hit a home run yet, but Cox doesn’t project to hit tons of homers, more like a 15-20 guy if he pans out but his defense is above average.

Kyle Jensen has plenty of power. He hit 27 HRs and 24 HRs over the past two seasons. The only question for him is, can he provide a sustainable approach at the plate once he gets to higher levels of baseball? That power has come at a price, with 137 Ks and 162 Ks in those past two seasons, too. That is over a K per game. Right now, the power is there (2 HRs in 57 ABs) but so are the Ks (18 in 17 games). He is hitting .263 with .394 OBP, .421 SLG, and .815 OPS. With the big three getting the focus, expect Jensen to get a little more time at AA JAX but with a more conservative approach, he should mature into a promising power hitter for the club down the road. He also may be moved to 1B to make him a little more dynamic and more marketable.

Which brings us to Mark Canha. A power hitting 1B prospect who hit 25 HRs back in 2011 at Greensboro, the power numbers took a dip last season. Yet his K’s and his average went up, so his maturity as a hitter may just now be starting to take root. The California 1B does have 2 HRs but is batting only .259. Yet over his last 10 games, Canha is catching fire hitting .389 with 2 HRs, 14 hits in 36 ABs, and only 8 Ks. If Canha can continue making this sort of progress, he will definitely make the leap he started last season as a hitter but also bring back the power that he showed in 2011.

 

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Fish Farm: Yordy Cabrera is Making Strides

April 16, 2013 in Fish Farm

YordyCabreraStillBigMaybe you didn’t notice, but the Marlins shed players and payroll this past offseason to net prospects to fill their roster for years to come. It was a hopeful move, to create promise for the future, but it has been met with great cynicism and distrust from Marlin fans who cite Loria’s past as a prologue to any future here in Miami. Yet, there is one deal that does seem to definitely be working out in the Marlins’ favor – and it isn’t one that most fans really know about.

Back in October, the Marlins got rid of the failed experiment that was Heath Bell. The Marlins signed the closer to a 3 year, $27M contract and hoped to have Bell’s success repeated in Miami where he grabbed 40+ saves for the Padres from 2009-2011. Let’s suffice it to say, it didn’t work out, so the Marlins dealt him to Arizona in a three team trade that netted the Marlins A’s prospect, Yordy Cabrera.

In Yordy Cabrera, the Marlins were able to get a raw hitter with power but poor pitch selection. The Lakewood High standout was drafted in the 2nd round by the A’s back in 2010, but it took a $1M signing bonus to persuade him from heading to college. Heading into the 2012 season, he was rated as the #5 prospect by FanGraphs in the A’s system but a need for more seasoning with pitch selection was noted. Also, his lack of range means he projects more to be a 3rd baseman instead of a SS – and we have seen this transition time and time again in baseball.

In 2012, his numbers were not very impressive. He hit 3 home runs in 220 ABs, and struck out at a 30% rate (68Ks in 220ABs). The A’s scrapped him to the Diamondbacks who then flipped him to the Marlins. Right now, though, Cabrera is showing tremendous promise – the power that he is projected to have is surfacing. He is currently hitting .269 with 3 home runs, with the last two coming in his last two games. He also has been able to cut his Ks down; he currently has 7Ks in 52ABs which is 13%.

In this deal, the Marlins shed Heath Bell’s contract – about $13M over this season and the next. His inability to get hitters out and dropping velocity meant the Marlins would have been locked into a bad deal. They got a young prospect in return that they hope can show enough promise to help create a sustainable option for 3B in the future. We wrote an article earlier that showed that the Marlins’ options for 3rd base were strictly internal at this point. Among those options are Zack Cox, Derek Dietrich, and now Yordy Cabrera. If Cabrera can continue to keep his K rate lowered, and his power numbers up, he could make the jump to AA later in the season.

Discuss Yordy Cabrera’s progress on the boards!

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Matt Dominguez Trade: A Big Mistake For the Marlins

December 21, 2012 in Offseason

In order to try and jumpstart the offense last year, the Marlins traded away their top 3B prospect, Matt Dominguez, to the Astros for Carlos Lee. “El Caballo” was expected to help create more run production for the Marlins, who were also facing  a lot of time without Giancarlo Stanton, to try and get the team out of cardiac arrest.

A few weeks later, the Marlins ended up trading Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. The rest is (bad) history for the Marlins as they began their project of jettisoning their heavy payroll for a fresh start.

Now the Marlins are in a serious bind. They are without a 3B for the immediate and foreseeable future. There is no clear vision at the position and in their desperation, the Marlins have been trying to hammer out some sort of a plan.

Before settling for Polanco, the Marlins were reportedly kicking the tires on several other teams’ young 3B options. They talked to the Rangers about Mike Olt, the Tigers about Nick Castellanos, and the Padres about Jedd Gyorko. They also tried to pry Mark Trumbo from the Angels, but that fizzled. Details about these discussions are not available, but it could be assumed that Ricky Nolasco was tossed in there as a possible scenario.

This is troubling because it shows a front office that panicked and ended up gambling away from a position of severe weakness to broker its future. It also perhaps shows the naivete that this front office may possess in trying to pry away top prospects from other organizations without having much to offer in return. A deal for Olt would make sense if the Rangers believed in Nolasco enough, but that certainly doesn’t seem to be the case. At any rate, the Marlins are settling for a short term fix and with Zack Cox and Derek Dietrich in the system, it remains to be seen what the long term vision will be.

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Marlins 3B Will Have to Come From Internal Source

December 12, 2012 in Offseason

Roundup-Coghlans-HR-off-Lincecum-lifts-Miami-MB1I85JL-x-large

One of the big needs this offseason for the Marlins was an upgrade at 3B. In fact, just about anyone would be an upgrade at this point but with slim pickings on the free agent market, there was little hope the Marlins would make an acquisition via free agency.

In fact, the biggest target on the market is Kevin Youkilis, whose skills are in decline yet still fetched a $12M one year deal with the Yankees. They paid high because they have Alex Rodriguez going to get hip surgery and will miss significant enough time.

It wouldn’t have made much sense for the Marlins to make a move like that considering the amount of money shelled out last offseason with little positive result in return. The other options are not much better as Eric Chavez, Jeff Keppinger, Mark Reynolds, all have their flaws and wouldnt offer much upside over the current options the Marlins have. The price certainly doesn’t make sense either.

Last season, the Marlins 3B hit .266/.322/.421 with 18 HRs in 629ABs with 122Ks and 167Hs. That includes Hanley Ramirez, Greg Dobbs, Donovan Solano as well. Can the Marlins find that production in the crevices of their couch? The hope is to improve on those numbers in order to try to win. To do that, they will have to go internal and find someone to step up. So, which options are the Marlins considering at this point?

Greg Dobbs is penciled in as the de facto starter but not so fast. His strength is to come off the bench as a pinch hitter and occasional spot starter. Much like Wes Helms, Dobbs provides a veteran bat off the bench to help keep the gears turning in a pinch; and a bit of a luxury for this young team. Still, he could put up solid numbers as the every day third bagger, around .270 with 10-15 HRs. In fact, last year as a 3B he hit .309 with 3 HRs in 123 ABs. Given the current market, he is a better option but it remains to be seen whether or not becoming a starter is in his best interest.

Chris Coghlan is listed as the 2nd option on the Marlins depth chart currently. The former 2009 NL Rookie of the Year showed great promise as a hitter with a disciplined approach and having a knack for getting on base. All of a sudden, after three more seasons, his numbers have plummeted in practically every category. His games played have dwindled as has his offensive performance. Coghlan had been battling injuries over the course of these past three seasons, but he may just be extra motivated to have an impact this upcoming season. He is going into his last season before being arbitration eligible and he will be looking to transition into a bigger contract and a more steady career. If he can get his batting eye back, the defense will be tolerable enough to see him man 3B. As a former 2B, Coghlan can play the infield position and is going to be getting a strong look at 3B this spring.

Another reclamation project worth keeping an eye on is Kevin Kouzmanoff. Signed by the Marlins to a minor league deal, Kouzmanoff is looking to come into spring with a chance at grabbing that wide open 3B job. In his three previous stops in the bigs, he has shown some pop with his bat hitting in the high teens with HRs. His AVG has fluttered around .260 and his strike outs are high, but he also does hit his fair share of doubles. He just may be solid enough to hit about .260 with 15+ HRs and around 30 doubles. Considering what the market had available, this may not be a bad move either.

There are younger options for the Marlins but most likely none will be ready at this point. Recently acquired Derek Dietrich looks to have a solid bat and will start getting looks at 3B, moving from SS where he was being moved anyway within the Rays organization. He projects to have 20HR power and solid hitting but most likely won’t arrive until 2014.

Zack Cox, acquired in the Mujica trade, is another college-polished hitter but his numbers have not hit where projected. His HR total went down but the yield was better (10 HRs in 394 ABs vs. 13 in 516 ABs in 2011). He may get a stronger look in spring, but will most likely head back for more ABs in the minors. Cox may be a September call up or, slightly sooner.

Yordy Cabrera, an athletic SS drafted by the A’s, is also projecting as a 3B but it remains to be seen whether or not the Lakewood High School standout will have the hitting tools necessary at 3B. He has a great infield arm and could be a great defensive player, but his poor hitting mechanics make him suspect offensively at this point.

Of these options, the hope would be for Coghlan to reclaim his 2009 form and take the job as the starter. The Marlins have mid-grade prospects in Cox and Dietrich to take over 3B long term but it remains to be seen whether either option will fare better than Matt Dominguez, let alone a Hanley Ramirez. Kouzmanoff provides an interesting alternative and if he can come in healthy and hungry, he may shock people with his production – maybe a Jorge Cantu-type of find. If that is the case, Coghlan can still mix in time in LF and 3B, which could be a plus to the team and both players.

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