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Marlins Losing Continues, But Team Not As Bad As Their Record Indicates

May 17, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

Yes, the Marlins are 11-30. Despicable. Deplorable. But is this team really that bad?

The Fish have had tons of injuries. Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison, Jeff Mathis, Donovan Solano, Joe Mahoney, Casey Kotchman – the list goes on and on. It hasn’t helped this team gain any consistency at all at any point in the season thus far. Not an excuse, but it certainly doesn’t help matters that two of your starters and three of your everyday position players are out.

That said, the Marlins have been able to fill holes – if you can see it that way. Marcell Ozuna has been called up to replace Giancarlo Stanton in RF; Derek Dietrich was brought up to spell some time at 2B for Donovan Solano. Kevin Slowey, Alex Sanabia, Tom Koehler, and Wade LeBlanc have all been valuable in eating innings as starters.

But is the team really as bad as a team that is 11-30? Not really when you look at the stats.

The Marlins are averaging 2.76 runs per game – last in the league. They are last in the league in hits per game (7.41), just below the Nationals (7.51). They are 20th in MLB in surrendering 4.37 runs per game to their opponents. The Marlins have amassed a run differential over the season of -66 runs thus far on the season. That is just -1.6 runs per game differential over the course of the season.

Marlins basically have to find a way to score another 1.6 runs per game to break even on their run differential, which would also push them towards becoming a realistic .500 team the rest of the way out. When you look at the guys they are getting back within the month, they may just get to that point.

Stanton and Morrison, provided the latter can start hitting anything like he did a few seasons ago, may have enough to mix this lineup into something more substantial. When you consider the young guys currently here and hitting (Dietrich, Ozuna) you may have a lot more depth and pop, too. Consider:

  1. Juan Pierre
  2. Donovan Solano
  3. Giancarlo Stanton
  4. Logan Morrison
  5. Justin Ruggiano
  6. Placido Polanco
  7. Adeiny Hechavarria
  8. Rob Brantly

You could flip Hechavarria to the 2 spot, or even plop Dietrich in there at 3B (for Polanco) or at 2B. Ozuna could play RF out right, or possibly move to LF (or have Stanton move to LF) to add more pop. All of this before even considering the arrival of Christian Yelich or Jake Marisnick.

Can the Marlins score more runs later in the year and become a more formidable offense later in the year? Very likely. Getting Mahoney and Kotchman back forces Greg Dobbs back into his role as a pinch hitter. The Marlins get deeper.

The Marlins are bad right now – not necessarily a bad team, just a bad team to watch. They can’t score runs and it seems infectious. All it takes is the right addition of hitters in the lineup and all of that could change.

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Jacob Turner Likely to Be Demoted, Rotation Set

March 24, 2013 in Spring Training

Jacob Turner could not throw strikes and that was ultimately the deciding factor on his immediate future with the Marlins. In a rain-shortened 4-1 loss to the Astros, Turner walked the lead off batter in every inning he pitched and just struggled with his control. Getting more time at AAA New Orleans will allow him to work on his control a bit and focus more on “pounding the strike zone” as Mike Redmond wants to see his starters do.

In the meantime, the rotation has been pretty much decided. Ricky Nolasco will be the Opening Day starter followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Wade LeBlanc, Henderson Alvarez, and Kevin Slowey. John Maine will get a long relief spot, and may get an occasional spot start. This starting group won’t scare opposing teams, but if they can throw strikes and let the defense behind them control everything else, this team will have success.

As for Turner, he needs to put in more work on his repertoire and locating his pitches effectively. Getting back into the minors may seem like a step down, but Turner is only 21 and was rushed along in the Detroit system – something that adversely affected Andrew Miller and something the Marlins hope to avoid.

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Demotions, Lawsuits, and Other Notes

March 23, 2013 in Spring Training

Looks like I was wrong about Chone Figgins. Despite hitting .318 this spring with the Fish, he is not viewed as a valued asset over other options the Marlins have in house. He was released by the Marlins this past Wednesday, leaving the team with 42 players left in camp. That means that Figgins could not displace Nick Green, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Matt Downs, and Chris Valaika as an option. Figgins could also play the OF, but with a battle for CF ongoing between Chris Coghlan, Gorkys Hernandez, and Justin Ruggiano, it looks like the team doesn’t need help their either. Juan Pierre is good friends with Figgins, but not so much as to give up his time in LF. I was kind of hoping that Figgins would be an Emilio Bonifacio replacement, but it looks like the Marlins don’t need that. Figgins was a low risk move, as his contract was bought out by Seattle, so it is surprising the Marlins let him go despite solid numbers. That said, the bottom line is Kevin Kouzmanoff will likely win the backup 3B job as he can provide some pop and can also play some 1B.

I was not wrong about Christian Yelich, however – who was demoted. We all know Wonderboy can hit, can field, can do it all – but he hasn’t done it above single A. That is, until this spring when he was wrecking opponent pitching and having fun with the whole thing. He hit .364 with 5 homers and 14 RBIs. The scary thing is, this kid has not reached physical maturity yet. He has all the tools, right now, to be an everyday OF on this club but would have to sort things out experientially. Probably another factor in the Figgins decision was that if Pierre does go down, they can call up Yelich right away. That said, expect this kid to make his debut after the all star break and help propel the Marlins on a surprising run. Teams typically delay bringing up top prospects until mid-June to push their arbitration eligibility back another year – and that is really the final decision to be made on Yelich. He’ll head on up north to AA Jacksonville and play for the legendary Suns – along with Jake Marisnick and Marcell Ozuna. The folks in north Florida could be seeing the OF of the future for the Marlins come 2014 (minus Giancarlo Stanton, of course!).

Looks like the PR firm the Marlins hired aren’t doing a great job of advising their clients. The latest is this lawsuit over season ticket holders not re-upping their seats for next year. They paid $25,000 to sit along the 3B side, but declined to renew because of the addition of a billboard along the 3B fence they were sitting at protrudes about 7″ above where it was at the start of the season. They were contractually obligated to renew for this season at $25,000. Since the Marlins jettisoned their roster, it is likely these clients of the Marlins decided to cut bait, too. We’ll see if the judges agree but most likely this will create more agita for the franchise that was just trying to run out the clock on this latest trade. It would have behooved the Marlins to make a deal in silence and not let this publicity come to light – again.

Wade LeBlanc struggled against the Nationals, but he has been great all spring. In fact, Joe Capozzi seems to suggest, via dialogue with Mike Redmond, that the 5th spot is LeBlanc’s to lose. He is a lefty, and has pitched pretty well all spring, but against the Nats he struggled in keeping the ball down in the zone, something Redmond has been preaching all spring. John Maine may make a play for a spot in the rotation, if Jacob Turner doesn’t get another strong outing. In the very least, both Kevin Slowey and John Maine look to make the roster as long relievers with the potential to spot start. Alex Sanabia, as good as he is, may be the odd man out.

Nathan Eovaldi looks to be the #2 starter behind Ricky Nolasco, who had a strong outing last night against the Mets, throwing 101 pitches. Nolasco is the unquestionable ace of this staff, whether or not he lives up to that remains to be seen but he is relishing the opportunity, reports say. Eovaldi has great stuff and has been able to harness control of his repertoire so his progress looks really good. Henderson Alvarez still seems like a bit of a mystery to me, he gives up a lot of hits still. Jacob Turner will be fine – he is only 21 but has good poise on the mound. The only concern is his leveling off of his velocity, which seems to be stuck on only 91. If he can’t sort things out, the Marlins will replace him with either Slowey or Maine and let him work it out in AAA NOLA.

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Observations vs Mets 3/16

March 16, 2013 in Spring Training

A couple of things are standing out to me while watching this game against the Mets today in Port Saint Lucie. Kevin Slowey has solid stuff. That 5th starter spot is going to be a tough decision with Wade LeBlanc, John Maine, Alex Sanabia, and Slowey in the mix. They might just have to keep all of them around to give the Fish more options for starting pitching if young arms aren’t quite up to snuff (Jacob Turner does seem to be coming around; Nathan Eovaldi looks like the solid #2 at this point; Henderson Alvarez remains a bit of an unquantifiable enigma at this point).

Chris Coghlan continues to put a solid bat on the ball, and hits to all fields with authority. He looks like he should be the opening day center fielder while Rugs works his way back into game shape.

Speaking of spraying the ball, Adeiny Hechavarria is not getting results, but he continues to put the ball up the middle part of the field. The kid has the tools to be an everday SS defensively right now, but his offense continues to need work. There is improvement in how he handles the bat and it seems his peak would be to become a Tony Fernandez like SS – who was his mentor with the Blue Jays.

Love @Peteypipes, but the guy is just not good enough to have on a MLB roster.

Chone Figgins should make this team no matter what. His experience will prove valuable along with guys like Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco in the clubhouse. These guys will help set the tone for the younger players in the locker room. Besides, the AB he had in the 9th inning shows what kind of a hitter this guy can be, and what kind of leadership he could bring – he drew a 17 pitch walk.

Christian Yelich is going to be called up this year. He has 4 home runs and his approach is extremely advanced for a hitter his age. He has a smooth, lefty swing which the announcers for the Mets likened to a young Shawn Green, which is a very nice comparison – but Yelich projects to have better offensive numbers. The kid is just cool and has star quality. He probably will be at AA Jax just long enough to get Jake Marisnick back and it will be hard to keep Yelich out of the 305 area code for long. Enjoy him while you can Jacksonville.

Kevin Kouzmanoff should make the roster for his forearms alone. He looks like he is in good shape and has a solid enough approach at the plate. Would be a nice backup to Polanco or could platoon with Figgins.

Casey Kochman should win the opening spot at 1B. Will Joe Mahoney make the roster or be sent down for more PT?

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Key Battles Emerging for CF, 5th Spot in Rotation, IF

March 8, 2013 in Spring Training

The Marlins spring is really getting some notice around baseball. This is a team that has purged payroll, yet again, and has reverted back to a youth movement. Although this has netted much criticism from fans, it does seem to have promise for the immediate future. The Marlins are winning games and playing highly competitive baseball at all positions.

They are getting solid pitching performances from their arms, they are getting lots of contact and already improvements in situational hitting seem to be emerging.

Yet, there are still several key battles for roster spots taking shape. Right now, the starting CF spot is up for grabs. Justin Ruggiano, the apparent shoe-in at the start of spring, has been suffering from a bad back and is now looking over his shoulder at former 2009 ROY Chris Coghlan. Coghlan has been impressing coaches with his ability to slice the ball to all parts of the field and make contact. He only has 3 strike outs in 24 ABs and also has amassed 6 hits (not including the 4-4 performance against Venezuela the other night). Coghlan may have played himself right back into the extra OF spot, if not into a possible starting role as the season gets underway in the next month. Ruggiano will make his spring debut Saturday.

Another key position that is in the thick of battle is the fight for the right to start every fifth day out for the Fish. The front runner was supposed to be Wade LeBlanc, a lefty who impressed last season, but other starters have been brought in to offer a little more competition for the spot. John Maine has been very solid all spring and Alex Sanabia also looks ready to go. LeBlanc has a 0.00 ERA with 6Ks in 5IP thus far. Maine has put together some great numbers, too holding a 1.80 ERA in 5IP and hitters are hitting .118 off of him right now. And then there is Alex Sanabia, who has pitched 4.1 IP but also has a 0.00 ERA with 4 Ks and hitters are hitting .067 against him. Sanabia may be the most intriguing of the bunch given his age and how consistent his stats have been. These seem to be the final three in contention for that final rotation spot but don’t be surprised if all three make the roster and give more options to the coaching staff as they move through a long season and will need help to protect against possible injury.

Then there is the search for extra infielders. Right now the Marlins are looking at Nick Green, Matt Downs, and Chone Figgins. Green has been steady in the field and does offer some flexibility, but his bat is not overly impressive at this point in the spring. Matt Downs offers some pop but also hasn’t really put together enough strong ABs but does have 1HR and only 4 Ks in 21 ABs. His big league resume has a bit more weight than Nick Green’s. But if it was all about the resume, then Chone Figgins would be locked up by a team right now, instead he is still in search of that final roster spot. That said, this is why he will win out – he is friends with Juan Pierre and can provide a replacement for Emilio Bonifacio as he is looking to reclaim his career. Both Downs and Figgins can play 3B, which may be a realistic option considering Placido Polanco’s back ails. In fact, Downs made a nice play at 3B today against the Yankees, further pushing himself into position to stick with the team. Figgins, however, can play middle infield and OF if necessary.

There are more notable players that still need to be examined more closely – Kevin Kouzmanoff, Joe Mahoney, and Casey Kotchman are all trying to get prime time at 1B with Logan Morrison still out and not getting back into full baseball mode quite yet.

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Fish Stew: Marlins Spring Training 2013 Sunday Edition 3/3

March 3, 2013 in Spring Training

So, what is going on in the world of the Miami Marlins? Let’s pull up some chairs and take a look.

Dan Le Batard finally weighs in on the whole Jeffrey Loria thing. States that basically, this franchise has to win back the trust of the fans – but did they ever truly have it in the first place? Credibility is at the core of the problem for the Marlins and Le Batard, surprisingly for him, makes the case that the Marlins are the victims here. Read on! We kind of addressed it from a similar angle.

Greg Cote chews on the unpopularity of Loria as well.

Marlins sign Giancarlo Stanton – for $537K. Long term negotiations will come and the Marlins should do whatever they can to keep Stanton in Miami; even if that means overpaying. The only way to repair the long term damage done to this team is to show by your actions that you are committed to winning and keeping Stanton will do just that. Going to write something on this soon. Miguel Cabrera ended up netting $7.4M in his first year of arbitration and then was dealt (in arguably the most one sided trade in Marlins history, if not in baseball).

Jose Reyes sticks to his story about Loria and the whole house-buying discussion. It’s a he-said, he-said situation and the only clear way out is to back either Reyes or Loria. Whomever has more credibility will win the day, but does that mean Reyes is right? Personally, I don’t think it makes any sense for Loria to lie on this one but at the same time, if Reyes is not telling the truth, why does he feel the need to throw Loria under the bus?

Alex Sanabia is vying for the 5th spot in the rotation and is contending mostly with John Maine and Wade LeBlanc. He had a solid performance yesterday in Port Saint Lucie against the Mets going 2IP with 1K, no runs, and no BBs. Remember to vote in our poll for who you think will eventually win the 5th starting spot (my money is on LeBlanc).

Marlin legend Mike Lowell made a visit with the team to help out good friend Mike Redmond. He also was on the bench during the Marlins v. Mets game in Port Saint Lucie yesterday, where the Fish had to settle for an 8-8 tie after 9 innings. This is a good thing for the Marlins who are trying to sell themselves back to the fans. It shows that not all former players are bitter and hate this ownership group – especially when Lowell freely shares his thoughts about the team and the feelings from the fans’ perspectives. Wonder if he would take a one year deal to play 3rd again…

Adeiny Hechavarria gained a very strong endorsement from Hanley Ramirez, according to Jefrey Loria. Hech will be a defensive gem at SS, the question is can he hit enough to make him a quality SS or at best, another Rey Ordonez. He does have some ability to hit the ball and make contact, but he will never put up the kind of numbers Hanley Ramirez did – in his prime as a Marlin, of course. Still, there is a lot of buzz about the Marlins’ middle infield tandem in Hechavarria and Donovan Solano.

By the way – just a side note. Sun-Sentinel has decided to go behind a pay wall. Although I think this is a great move to protect their paper and business, this could backfire. Everyone will instead just read the Miami Herald or Palm Beach Post and push the Sun-Sentinel to the back. Not sure if they think they are the New York Times or not, but interesting to see if this works out for them. We can’t cite their articles because it would require users to create accounts to read them. Just something to consider Sun-Sentinel!

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