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Matt Dominguez Trade: A Big Mistake For the Marlins

December 21, 2012 in Offseason

In order to try and jumpstart the offense last year, the Marlins traded away their top 3B prospect, Matt Dominguez, to the Astros for Carlos Lee. “El Caballo” was expected to help create more run production for the Marlins, who were also facing  a lot of time without Giancarlo Stanton, to try and get the team out of cardiac arrest.

A few weeks later, the Marlins ended up trading Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. The rest is (bad) history for the Marlins as they began their project of jettisoning their heavy payroll for a fresh start.

Now the Marlins are in a serious bind. They are without a 3B for the immediate and foreseeable future. There is no clear vision at the position and in their desperation, the Marlins have been trying to hammer out some sort of a plan.

Before settling for Polanco, the Marlins were reportedly kicking the tires on several other teams’ young 3B options. They talked to the Rangers about Mike Olt, the Tigers about Nick Castellanos, and the Padres about Jedd Gyorko. They also tried to pry Mark Trumbo from the Angels, but that fizzled. Details about these discussions are not available, but it could be assumed that Ricky Nolasco was tossed in there as a possible scenario.

This is troubling because it shows a front office that panicked and ended up gambling away from a position of severe weakness to broker its future. It also perhaps shows the naivete that this front office may possess in trying to pry away top prospects from other organizations without having much to offer in return. A deal for Olt would make sense if the Rangers believed in Nolasco enough, but that certainly doesn’t seem to be the case. At any rate, the Marlins are settling for a short term fix and with Zack Cox and Derek Dietrich in the system, it remains to be seen what the long term vision will be.

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Not Likely: Possible Nolasco For Trumbo Deal Not Happening

December 21, 2012 in Offseason

While the past few days rumors have surfaced that the Marlins were talking with the Angels about a possible Ricky Nolasco for Mark Trumbo swap, there are strong suggestions that this possible scenario is dead.

First of all, there is the Kendry Morales for Justin Vargas (an ex-Marlin) deal. The Angels were able to trade one of their biggest strengths (power hitting) for a lefty starter to add depth to their rotation. Both teams actually got better after this deal, and although Nolasco may seem an equitable return for Trumbo, his price tag ($11.5M) may have been a bit too much to swallow even for the Angels. Vargas is in the mid-$2M range, and is a wash for Morales’ departing contract.

Trumbo also may have been pushed over to 3B for the Marlins. Recently the Marlins tried to acquire Nick Castellanos from the Tigers, but in falling short of that they may have shopped the Angels for Trumbo. Signing Polanco seems to be waiving the white flag on finding a third baseman and all but confirms the roster, as of now, is settled.

Juan Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel confirmed our suspicions via Twitter today, too. So, don’t bet on Trumbo settling in with Stanton any time soon here in Miami.

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Mark Trumbo For Ricky Nolasco Next Move for Marlins?

December 20, 2012 in Offseason

Mark Trumbo_650x440There are a lot of reports that the Marlins are in discussions with the Angels for a possible trade. The Angels are looking to bolster their starting pitching and the Marlins may indeed be shopping Ricky Nolasco, who is due $11.5M in the final year of his contract.

Nolasco has been very candid about his displeasure with the direction of the team and as the last player from the 2006 era, he may be an antiquity that needs to be reshuffled. More importantly, Nolasco offers a quality arm for any team looking to log innings and get an improved chance of winning (see his WAR stats for better understanding of how he could contribute to a team’s bottom line). Nolasco may perform better on a team with higher pay grade and his performances may be a bit of a waste on a young, developing team. Nolasco is also from California, and being in the final year of his contract, is going to be using this upcoming season as an audition to land a big contract – like former teammate Anibal Sanchez did with the Tigers.

Mark Trumbo has a lot of power potential and has splashed over the 30 HR plateau this past season. He is young and under team control for a few more years, which means he fits right in with what the Marlins are doing. Pairing him in a lineup with Giancarlo Stanton, and if Logan Morrison can finally deliver on his promise of hitting the ball (instead of Tweeting about everything in sight), this may have the makings of a very formidable young power lineup.

This deal would make sense but it is all about getting what each team wants. The Marlins may be willing to pay a bulk of Nolasco’s salary to net a guy like Trumbo – and if they are not, they better seriously awaken to the possibility. Acquiring a guy like Trumbo would not be seen as a pay dumping move but instead a build for a blueprint of the future where the Marlins would be setting themselves up for a brighter future. They would also communicate to Stanton that they want to form a strong nucleus of hitters around him which bodes well for a future deal with him. The Marlins, as Joe Frisaro has suggested, may even up the ante and send off a prospect to seal the deal. So Nolasco, a pitching prospect (outside of Jose Fernandez, of course) and, depending on how much salary they would have to eat, could make this deal happen.

Discuss potential deal of Nolasco for Trumbo with us!

 

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Cantu Traded to Giants?

December 7, 2008 in Offseason

There is a rumor floating around that the next piece to be shipped out of Miami is Jorge Cantu and he may be heading to San Francisco as the Giants are looking to improve their horrid offense from last season.

The target? Jonathan Sanchez, the 26 year old starter who went 9-15 last season with a 5.01 ERA. Sanchez shows good strike out ability, K’ing 157 batters in 158.0 IP. Yet he had a WHIP of 1.45 and a .257 BAA in his first full season as a starter (garnering 29 starts).

Still, how would this deal work out for the Marlins? I am leaning in favor of it for one simple reason – value. And Jose Castillo.

You all remember Jose Castillo, right? He was brought into spring training with the Marlins last season to contend for the vacant 3B spot, left so by the Miguel Cabrera trade. Well, Jorge Cantu won the starting job and that meant that Dallas McPherson went down to the minors and Jose Castillo was left to find his own way as he was released. Castillo landed on the Giants – who are now considering a trade with the Marlins for Jorge Cantu.

Essentially then, Beinfest signed three 3B on the trash heap, released one (Castillo), watched another increase his value (Cantu) and the other providing enough data to have potential (Dallas McPherson) and is now poised to cash in for Sanchez, a pretty strong young starting pitcher whom the Marlins could groom (and afford) for the future.

Starting pitching is the biggest asset you can have in baseball. To get more is always a situation where you will have to stack the talent in order to entice the other team to deal – that or the other team must be desperate. The Giants fit neatly into both categories. It cannot be overlooked that Sanchez has almost 1 K per inning for his 2008 campaign, despite his high ERA and BAA. It is known that pitchers seem to mature in their late 20′s as the game is mostly cerebral. And Cantu has his flaws – low OBP, weak defense (22 errors).

In essence, this fits into the Marlins plan – stockpile pitching and cut down on the strikeouts on offense while looking to put the ball in play. Cantu could be replaced by Dallas McPherson, who hit 42 home runs in the Pacific Coast League last season while Sanchez could be added immediately to the rotation that would boast a pretty formidable young staff. It only would cost the Marlins a player that they took a flyer on who increased his value.

Tell us what you think on our boards!

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Jacobs Gone; Olsen Next?

November 1, 2008 in Offseason, Trades

With all the arbitration eligible players on the Marlins roster, there remains a lot of work to do this offseason. The Marlins are apparently looking to add more speed and defense to the roster and try to get a more balanced attack on offense, shucking the long ball for more small ball.

So far, they traded away one of their best power sources in Mike Jacobs to get back a young reliever. This will be classified as a “market correction” and frankly, the Marlins could have gotten more in return for Jacobs but it seems they have a budget and a plan in mind – and taking back equal value for Jacobs would mean jettisoning one of their targets. Equal value means, essentially equal pay after all and Jacobs is looking to get $3.5M this upcoming season.

This also means that Scott Olsen, who is also arbitration eligible, will be dealt because he is expected to take on at least that much next season. Another concern should be Olsen’s disappearing velocity, which should undercut his real value (as opposed to his perceived value which will be based on his stats). Whose biting? The Rangers and Indians are apparently interested in Olsen, as both clubs need pitching and Olsen offers someone who is going to eat up innings and is still fairly young. Who they get in return will remain to be seen, but it should factor into their budget. The Marlins, after giving up Jacobs for a moderate return, need to get back more value with the Olsen deal.

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Marlins Will Be Buyers

June 20, 2008 in Players

Expect the Marlins to be buyers this season before the July 31st trade deadline. Just don’t expect them to make any big moves.

Jayson Stark even speculates that the Marlins will be buyers. For anyone at BSPN to speculate as such means it is bordering on the obvious and predictable – so you can bank on that. But you can’t bank on the Marlins trading prospects away for a big name. Won’t happen. This team is shrewd if not spendthrift.  They know their success will be built with young talent until they get well-settled into that new ballpark.

So, will the Marlins deal Josh Willingham to get a position of need? Possible, but not likely. The Marlins are living with Luis Gonzalez, Alfredo Amezaga, Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida. Two of those guys are supposed to be on the bench, and when Willingham comes back that will happen. Ross as our everyday CF is still a bit of a reach for me, but he has shown a white hot bat at times and does man every outfield position pretty well defensively.

No, Cameron Maybin will not be brought up, so don’t even think that. He will come up and sit on the bench come September, but won’t play too much if we are fighting for a playoff spot.

Besides, the Marlins are looking at getting Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Sergio Mitre back here in the next month or so. They envision that as their big deal to push their team closer to the playoff hunt. Same goes for Willingham.

Expect the Marlins to be buyers as they push forward for the NL East crown and a wild card spot. Just don’t expect them to trade away young talent they have control over. Yes, Willingham is arbitration eligible, but with his MLB service tinged with injury, it seems likely they will still get a good deal for him.

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