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Marlins Losing Continues, But Team Not As Bad As Their Record Indicates

May 17, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

Yes, the Marlins are 11-30. Despicable. Deplorable. But is this team really that bad?

The Fish have had tons of injuries. Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison, Jeff Mathis, Donovan Solano, Joe Mahoney, Casey Kotchman – the list goes on and on. It hasn’t helped this team gain any consistency at all at any point in the season thus far. Not an excuse, but it certainly doesn’t help matters that two of your starters and three of your everyday position players are out.

That said, the Marlins have been able to fill holes – if you can see it that way. Marcell Ozuna has been called up to replace Giancarlo Stanton in RF; Derek Dietrich was brought up to spell some time at 2B for Donovan Solano. Kevin Slowey, Alex Sanabia, Tom Koehler, and Wade LeBlanc have all been valuable in eating innings as starters.

But is the team really as bad as a team that is 11-30? Not really when you look at the stats.

The Marlins are averaging 2.76 runs per game – last in the league. They are last in the league in hits per game (7.41), just below the Nationals (7.51). They are 20th in MLB in surrendering 4.37 runs per game to their opponents. The Marlins have amassed a run differential over the season of -66 runs thus far on the season. That is just -1.6 runs per game differential over the course of the season.

Marlins basically have to find a way to score another 1.6 runs per game to break even on their run differential, which would also push them towards becoming a realistic .500 team the rest of the way out. When you look at the guys they are getting back within the month, they may just get to that point.

Stanton and Morrison, provided the latter can start hitting anything like he did a few seasons ago, may have enough to mix this lineup into something more substantial. When you consider the young guys currently here and hitting (Dietrich, Ozuna) you may have a lot more depth and pop, too. Consider:

  1. Juan Pierre
  2. Donovan Solano
  3. Giancarlo Stanton
  4. Logan Morrison
  5. Justin Ruggiano
  6. Placido Polanco
  7. Adeiny Hechavarria
  8. Rob Brantly

You could flip Hechavarria to the 2 spot, or even plop Dietrich in there at 3B (for Polanco) or at 2B. Ozuna could play RF out right, or possibly move to LF (or have Stanton move to LF) to add more pop. All of this before even considering the arrival of Christian Yelich or Jake Marisnick.

Can the Marlins score more runs later in the year and become a more formidable offense later in the year? Very likely. Getting Mahoney and Kotchman back forces Greg Dobbs back into his role as a pinch hitter. The Marlins get deeper.

The Marlins are bad right now – not necessarily a bad team, just a bad team to watch. They can’t score runs and it seems infectious. All it takes is the right addition of hitters in the lineup and all of that could change.

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With Marlins Offense Anemic, Some Changes Must Be Made

April 21, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

ap-marlins-spring-baseball-x-largeThe good news is, the Marlins have the pitching and the defense to make a push for a strong run. They could, potentially, rattle off 5-10 wins in a row. Then there is the bad news – the offense just plain sucks. They can’t scratch out runs, let alone score runs in bunches.

Nothing new to report there. The Marlins knew they were going to be challenged at scoring runs and there was a recognition that there would be a power outage this year. The lone power threat, Giancarlo Stanton, has yet to hit a home run or even an RBI in his 43 ABs. But there is hope – Stanton is not the only hitter in the lineup with the ability to hit for power and as soon as some of these injuries sort themselves out, he may actually be getting some protection in the lineup.

Justin Ruggiano has 3 home runs right now, hitting 2 on this road trip in Cincinnati on back to back nights. When you look at the lineup, he is hitting behind Greg Dobbs in the 5th spot. Why not slide him behind Stanton to give him a little more protection?

Manager Mike Redmond is trying to get blood from a stone here, but his strategy appears to be sound. He has Stanton batting 3rd so that he will be guaranteed an AB in the 1st inning. Sounds good except pitchers tend to be a little more adjusted after the first two batters and the next inning they start changing their pitching approach around. The thought is that Stanton will be able to sneak in there with RISP and get something going. So far, that hasn’t happened.

The Marlins best overall hitter right now is Placido Polanco who, with RISP, is hitting .467. In fact he is hitting .286 when ahead in the count and .304 when behind in the count. Although he is more apt to hit in the #2 slot, he could slide down and be an effective turn over hitter in the first inning if anyone gets on base in front of him or if he just needs to get on to extend the inning for Stanton.

Which then leaves us with Ruggiano. He offers better protection behind Stanton because not only has he demonstrated he has pop in his bat, he is a pretty good high pitch hitter and if a pitcher walks Stanton to get to Ruggiano, his control may slip a bit and he could very well leave a pitch hanging for Ruggiano to do something with. Even if that doesn’t play out, Ruggiano is a better option behind Stanton than anyone else in the lineup and it is time for Redmond to recognize that and scrap the Dobbs experiment.

Speaking of Greg Dobbs, it is time to get Joe Mahoney some time in at 1B. Not only does he offer a big defense target for the defense over there, but he is a lefty bat with lots of pop. If he could get going, he too could offer something this lineup is lacking – the ability to score runs in bunches and drive in runs.

The Marlins don’t strike out – which is a good thing. They are currently rated 6th in all of baseball with a 6.83 K per game average. What is more telling though is that they are 3rd in the league with regards to sacrifices per game – the Fish are sporting a 0.61 average for sacs per game; only San Francisco (0.72) and San Diego (0.76) are above them.

So what gives? Well, there has been an attempt to call the Marlins LOB City, but they are not the worst. Their current average is 13.67 LOB per game, 15th in MLB (the worst is Detroit 18.71). The team is putting the ball in play, getting sacrifices when it needs to, and is right in the middle when it comes to leaving men on base. Here’s why – hits per game. The Marlins are 30th in MLB with a 6.72 average. The best? Detroit with a 10.24 average – which is why their LOB average is so high, When you hit that much a game, you are guaranteeing that you will leave men on.

The input from the Marlins is low but they are definitely maximizing their output as much as they can. They are putting the ball in play, they are not striking out, they do sac to get runners over, but they just aren’t hitting enough to score runs. Very rarely do the Marlins actually get more than one hit per inning – as their average testifies. So, what is the solution? Bunch up all the power you have and give it a chance to make a bigger splash.

Redmond has spread out his power bats a bit trying to generate scoring opportunities in each inning but it flat out doesn’t work. The Marlins need to isolate their power and give themselves a chance to score in bunches every couple of innings or so. To do that, they need to have Stanton protected by Ruggiano, the only guy proven right now to hit with power. They can then follow him with Mahoney or Dobbs. Then turn the lineup over again with the bottom of the order.

Basically, the Marlins have a plethora of #2 slot hitters – guys who can hit behind a runner on base, but not necessarily have the ability to drive them in. If you look at those types of hitters on this roster, you have Donovan Solano, Placido Polanco, Rob Brantly, Chris Coghlan. Juan Pierre is a leadoff hitter and Adeiny Hechavarria is inconsistent to this point to really have a proper appraisal of what kind of a hitter he can be. He may be a #2 guy, but he can hit with some pop from time to time, too. If he can continue to cut down on his K rate, he may offer some interesting upside to complement his stellar defense.

All of this is prologue towards Logan Morrison’s eventual return. What kind of a hitter he will be once he returns remains to be seen, but he has the promise and the ability to be a major offensive threat while holding down 1B. With his return, he could be better served to bat behind Stanton or even in front of him. The core of the Marlins power then becomes Ruggiano, Stanton, and Morrison but until that day arrives, the Marlins will have to take their chances with what they have.

Another good thing to keep in mind is that Stanton is a notoriously slow starter. He usually fares poorly in April but gets hotter as the season moves along. He has the ability to carry a team’s offense, but that probably won’t surface until he gets more ABs and gets hot moving towards May.

Keep an eye on Christian Yelich, too. He is not healthy yet, but he will get some ABs in AA Jacksonville. If he gets hot down there, and Juan Pierre continues this “funk” he is in, the Marlins may be tempted to call up the wunderkid and see what he can do. Yes, there is the possibility that we don’t see him anytime until after the All Star Break so that the clock is not started early on his arbitration but if the Marlins are serious about winning (ahem, Jeffrey Loria) then they will make that call much like they did with Jose Fernandez.

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Observations vs Mets 3/16

March 16, 2013 in Spring Training

A couple of things are standing out to me while watching this game against the Mets today in Port Saint Lucie. Kevin Slowey has solid stuff. That 5th starter spot is going to be a tough decision with Wade LeBlanc, John Maine, Alex Sanabia, and Slowey in the mix. They might just have to keep all of them around to give the Fish more options for starting pitching if young arms aren’t quite up to snuff (Jacob Turner does seem to be coming around; Nathan Eovaldi looks like the solid #2 at this point; Henderson Alvarez remains a bit of an unquantifiable enigma at this point).

Chris Coghlan continues to put a solid bat on the ball, and hits to all fields with authority. He looks like he should be the opening day center fielder while Rugs works his way back into game shape.

Speaking of spraying the ball, Adeiny Hechavarria is not getting results, but he continues to put the ball up the middle part of the field. The kid has the tools to be an everday SS defensively right now, but his offense continues to need work. There is improvement in how he handles the bat and it seems his peak would be to become a Tony Fernandez like SS – who was his mentor with the Blue Jays.

Love @Peteypipes, but the guy is just not good enough to have on a MLB roster.

Chone Figgins should make this team no matter what. His experience will prove valuable along with guys like Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco in the clubhouse. These guys will help set the tone for the younger players in the locker room. Besides, the AB he had in the 9th inning shows what kind of a hitter this guy can be, and what kind of leadership he could bring – he drew a 17 pitch walk.

Christian Yelich is going to be called up this year. He has 4 home runs and his approach is extremely advanced for a hitter his age. He has a smooth, lefty swing which the announcers for the Mets likened to a young Shawn Green, which is a very nice comparison – but Yelich projects to have better offensive numbers. The kid is just cool and has star quality. He probably will be at AA Jax just long enough to get Jake Marisnick back and it will be hard to keep Yelich out of the 305 area code for long. Enjoy him while you can Jacksonville.

Kevin Kouzmanoff should make the roster for his forearms alone. He looks like he is in good shape and has a solid enough approach at the plate. Would be a nice backup to Polanco or could platoon with Figgins.

Casey Kochman should win the opening spot at 1B. Will Joe Mahoney make the roster or be sent down for more PT?

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Miami Marlins: Placido Polanco healthy, ready for everyday third base job – South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

January 9, 2013 in Offseason, Roster

His answer was brief, but the confidence behind it was abundant.

Asked if physically he was prepared for a full season as the Miami Marlins’ everyday third baseman, Placido Polanco said: “Yes, sir.”

Polanco’s one-year, $2.75 million free agent deal sparked questions about whether he was a full or partial solution to the third base vacancy. Due in large part to a back issue, Polanco appeared in just 90 games for the Phillies last season. Now 37, Polanco has seen his games played total drop each of the last three years.

“Everything has been taken care of,” Polanco said. “[My injury] came from an operation I had in 2011 to fix a double sports hernia. I still had problems [in 2012], a lot of scar tissue and that area was weak. I was compensating a lot with my back and other parts of my body. Thank God, all that is in the past and I feel very healthy.

“My [offseason] training has gone very well. I had a couple of years where I didn’t feel as sure, but I’ve done a lot of exercises and I’ve tested all parts of my body. I feel healthy. I don’t even want to talk about it too much because those are bad experiences and it leaves a bad taste in your mouth because you really don’t enjoy the game when you’re injured, and I love the game.”

via Miami Marlins: Placido Polanco healthy, ready for everyday third base job – South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com.

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5 Bold Predictions for the 2013 Miami Marlins

January 1, 2013 in Offseason

MLB: All Star Futures GameWell, 2012 is history and 2013 is here. So, as we pause to take stock of our lives at this time of year, let’s consider what the new year will bring for the Fish.

2012 was an utter, and total, disappointment. Spending over $100M a year ago in the offseason only netted 69 wins for a team that never seemed to get its footing and establish itself. Their bombastic manager, Ozzie Guillen, was fired. Hanley Ramirez was traded to the Dodgers. Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante to the Tigers; John Buck, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and Emilio Bonifacio all dealt to the Blue Jays. The Marlins gave up on their year long experiment and decided to revert back to a more conservative method of resetting and trying to build a core with young talent.

The yield from all of those trades was essentially Nathan Eovaldi (Dodgers), Jacob Turner and Rob Brantly (Tigers), Adeiny Hechavarria, Jeff Mathis, and Henderson Alvarez (Blue Jays) who are all going to be contributing to the big league club in 2013. There are some other prospects that were acquired (like Jake Marisnick and Justin Nicolino) and will play a role going forward to 2014 and beyond.

Many are making predictions about what kind of year we can expect from the Fish but here are 5 bold predictions you can bank on for the upcoming year:

LeBlanc-replacing-Zambrano-in-Marlins-rotation-L81VE9G0-x-large5. Wade LeBlanc will emerge as a quality starter.

Currently heading into Spring Training as a contender for the 5th starting spot, Wade LeBlanc seems to have the perfect timing. As a member of the San Diego Padres, LeBlanc was shaping up to be a starter who could string together quality starts. Last year, for the Marlins, he logged 25 appearances, 9 of them starts, and maintained a sub-4 ERA (3.67). He also was able to scatter hits as hitters averaged .275 against him. LeBlanc also has a solid K:BB ratio – he had 2.26 ratio last season and for his career it is 1.87. His biggest sampling size would be his 2010 season where he went 8-12 with a 4.65 ERA, 110Ks to 51BBs and a .279 AVG against. Bottom Line: expect LeBlanc to log 180+ IP, win 10 games, 122 Ks and 55 BBs.

4. Adeiny Hechavarria will contend as a Rookie of the Year candidate and prove a gold-glove caliber shortstop.

In dealing away former batting champion and all-star Jose Reyes, it was critical the Marlins got back a player that could man the position that was being vacated. Yunel Escobar was originally brought in not to be the SS, but to play 3B for the Marlins as they looked to return to their defensive pedigree (Perry Hill is back with the Fish, you may have noticed). That is because Hechavarria, the Cuban defensive wunderkind was pegged as the man for the job. Always noted for his defensive ability, the SS prospect was being groomed as a possible future fixture for the Jays if Escobar continued to create controversy beyond this upcoming season. The only question is can Hechavarria hit? Expect a manageable offensive output, around .260+ and less than 20% K rate for a hitter that will be able to run well (30SBs) and score runs from the bottom portion of the lineup. He will figure though in some brilliant defensive plays and that alone should get him enough notice to be among contenders for the ROY hardware AND a gold glove at his position.

3. A Marlin will win the Rookie of the Year.

It won’t be anyone who you think at this point but look for the Marlins to not only have several players contending for the ROY but also to win it. Hechavarria is eligible but won’t have enough to do it. Dontrelle Willis (2003), Hanley Ramirez (2006), and Chris Coghlan (2009) have all done it in the past. So who will it be? Look for something unexpected, much like the 2003 season – when two young players get late call ups. Instead of Willis and Miguel Cabrera, you will see Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich get call ups during the season. Jose Fernandez has the tools to win as a big league pitcher right away and with his ability to strike out hitters, he will emerge as a front runner for the ROY candidacy and help hold down a solid, but young Miami Marlins rotation.

Mike-Redmond2. The Marlins will finish .500.

Getting key contributions from their rookies will be vital for success for the 2013 season. Hechavarria will have to flaunt his glove and hit enough to not kill the offense. The starting rotation is young and inexperienced, but expect them to be solid and tough competitors – at least three of the starters are capable of winning 10+ games right away, if they can play enough games. Ricky Nolasco will be forced into a leadership role and most likely will be dealt around the trade deadline because the Marlins will have nothing to gain by keeping him – which makes our prediction of a Marlins team in contention quite sticky. Yet, this goes with the previous scenario – an emerging Jose Fernandez who give the Marlins comfort that he is ready and can feel free to trade Nolasco away for upgrades with young talent.

Mike Redmond is going to have this team playing smart, competitive baseball where they will make their fair share of mistakes but for a young team, they will play smarter than their collective age belies. Expect a similar style of play to what was seen in 2003 – defense, running, and timely hitting. Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco are both guys who can provide steady offensive approaches from veterans to help keep the offense going. Logan Morrison is going to look to rebound from dissatisfying offensive seasons at his new home at 1B. Their defense will be improved, they will put the ball in play more often and execute when expected. They will be able to run and their bullpen will surprise many. Although they will not contend for the top of the division, they will linger for wildcard contention, drive up attendance and get a grumbling fan base to think again about the direction of this franchise as they look towards a brighter future.

1. Giancarlo Stanton will be a fixture for the Marlins for years to come.

Which brings us to our last bold prediction. The Marlins brass can safely admit they screwed up with the Miguel Cabrera thing. Sure, Dontrelle Willis didn’t pan out, but Cabrera certainly did. It wasn’t that the Marlins didn’t get notable prospects in return, it is just that they didn’t pan out either. The Marlins will not be able to take that kind of chance with Stanton – a generational hitter who has the chance to make a serious run at all time records with his bat. The Marlins, as their young foundation takes root, will be able to win games and play the right way behind the steady leadership of Mike Redmond. The 2013 team will contrast the 2012 team greatly in its approach and lovability which will get Stanton swept up in thinking long term. The Marlins will sign him through his arbitration years, locking him up for $100M and also adding a no-trade clause to show good faith.

Some Other Stories to Watch For

The Return of Chris Coghlan – can he revert back to the patient hitter he was in his 2009 ROY campaign? Look for him to make a return to his natural position, 2B, and grab a regular starting role again while Solano moves to a more comfortable position as an IF utility player much like an Alfredo Amezaga. What will be telling will be his play coming into spring training. If he catches fire, look for the Marlins to find ways to get his bat into the lineup.

Who’s at 3B? Placido Polanco will get his share of ABs, we estimate about 100 games. Still, who will emerge as the long term plan? If the Marlins can’t pull off a trade with Nolasco to get their man for the future, keep an eye on Derek Dietrich who is MLB ready. If he hits well in the minors, the Marlins would not be opposed to bringing him along to get some ABs with the big club to spell Polanco.

Rugi! Rugi! Rugi! Justin Ruggiano – a sleeper in the making, the guy is probably better suited to play a corner OF spot but Juan Pierre doesn’t have the arm to play in CF. Still, his solid campaign with regular ABs after being acquired from the Astros in May 2012 have helped put a positive spin on last season and maybe help him become another Cody Ross-like cult fan figure in Miami.

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Miami Marlins Take Best of Bad Situation in Signing Placido Polanco – Fish Stripes

December 22, 2012 in Offseason

So what can we expect out of Polanco in 2013? Any discussion regarding Polanco typically begins with his glove, which remains stellar. Over the last three seasons, he has posted an average Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 12.6 runs above average per full season of play. Polanco passed the eye test as well, at least when it came to the Fans Scouting Report. He was rated ninth among third basemen in the FSR, behind a number of good rookie shortstops who were shifted to third base (Manny Machado, Adeiny Hechavarria) and other elite third basemen (Evan Longoria, Scott Rolen, Ryan Zimmerman).

With his continued aging, we would expect that to drop, but even if it falls down to eight or 10 runs above average, the Marlins would still be receiving the best defensive third baseman the club has likely ever had. Assuming eight runs above average per full year, it will not take much more to make Polanco close to a league-average player.

As far as his offense, there is much to be desired. Polanco is coming off of his worst offensive campaign since the start of his career, Over the last three years, he has hit a respectable but still very light .281/.330/.356, and his power will not be returning now that he has left Citizens Bank Ballpark and entered Marlins Park. However, last year his performance was brought down by his lowest BABIP of his career as well, and if he can drag that BABIP back up to something less than his career norm, the Marlins should at least see a repeat of his 2011 batting line. Indeed, Bill James projects a .279/,331/.368 line (.303 wOBA) that is very similar to that 2011 mark.

Assuming that projection sticks, the only thing left to consider Polanco’s playing time. He logged an average of 484 PA per season over the last three years, and I would be comfortable guessing about the same number for him in 2013. Giving him 480 PA for the year, the Marlins could expect a below-average hitter who makes up for it by being an excellent third baseman, much in the way Omar Infante did in 2011 and 2012. In that small amount of time, Polanco may be worth 1.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which would make him a stellar investment for the Fish.

via Miami Marlins Take Best of Bad Situation in Signing Placido Polanco – Fish Stripes.

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