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Marlins Losing Continues, But Team Not As Bad As Their Record Indicates

May 17, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

Yes, the Marlins are 11-30. Despicable. Deplorable. But is this team really that bad?

The Fish have had tons of injuries. Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison, Jeff Mathis, Donovan Solano, Joe Mahoney, Casey Kotchman – the list goes on and on. It hasn’t helped this team gain any consistency at all at any point in the season thus far. Not an excuse, but it certainly doesn’t help matters that two of your starters and three of your everyday position players are out.

That said, the Marlins have been able to fill holes – if you can see it that way. Marcell Ozuna has been called up to replace Giancarlo Stanton in RF; Derek Dietrich was brought up to spell some time at 2B for Donovan Solano. Kevin Slowey, Alex Sanabia, Tom Koehler, and Wade LeBlanc have all been valuable in eating innings as starters.

But is the team really as bad as a team that is 11-30? Not really when you look at the stats.

The Marlins are averaging 2.76 runs per game – last in the league. They are last in the league in hits per game (7.41), just below the Nationals (7.51). They are 20th in MLB in surrendering 4.37 runs per game to their opponents. The Marlins have amassed a run differential over the season of -66 runs thus far on the season. That is just -1.6 runs per game differential over the course of the season.

Marlins basically have to find a way to score another 1.6 runs per game to break even on their run differential, which would also push them towards becoming a realistic .500 team the rest of the way out. When you look at the guys they are getting back within the month, they may just get to that point.

Stanton and Morrison, provided the latter can start hitting anything like he did a few seasons ago, may have enough to mix this lineup into something more substantial. When you consider the young guys currently here and hitting (Dietrich, Ozuna) you may have a lot more depth and pop, too. Consider:

  1. Juan Pierre
  2. Donovan Solano
  3. Giancarlo Stanton
  4. Logan Morrison
  5. Justin Ruggiano
  6. Placido Polanco
  7. Adeiny Hechavarria
  8. Rob Brantly

You could flip Hechavarria to the 2 spot, or even plop Dietrich in there at 3B (for Polanco) or at 2B. Ozuna could play RF out right, or possibly move to LF (or have Stanton move to LF) to add more pop. All of this before even considering the arrival of Christian Yelich or Jake Marisnick.

Can the Marlins score more runs later in the year and become a more formidable offense later in the year? Very likely. Getting Mahoney and Kotchman back forces Greg Dobbs back into his role as a pinch hitter. The Marlins get deeper.

The Marlins are bad right now – not necessarily a bad team, just a bad team to watch. They can’t score runs and it seems infectious. All it takes is the right addition of hitters in the lineup and all of that could change.

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Are Fans Turning Against LoMo?

May 1, 2013 in Injuries, Regular Season, Roster

th-2Maybe its because of his tweets and the freeness with which he shares his opinions, but Logan Morrison is starting to rub even Marlin fans the wrong way. Yes, fans of a team that could desperately use some power in their lineup are starting to turn away from a guy who could provide more pop.

Maybe it is all the self promoting? Guess who has another charity project starting up? Why not; being on the DL for 60 days certainly must involve some thumb twiddling. And of course, we all know that Morrison lost his father to cancer – lung cancer. One side of this story that isn’t told publicly is apparently how Jeffrey Loria secured a private jet for their family during this critical time. It was also his father’s death that certainly shattered Morrison’s personal life and the tale has been shared publicly with Marlin fans and others across baseball. It is a cause that Morrison is very passionate about.

So, you’d think a guy who suffered an immense loss and is a likeable figure on the field would be a hit with Marlin fans yet, he’s slowly becoming the poster child of what was wrong with the Marlins in recent history. Full of promise, but short on results. All sizzle but no substance. LoMo got in trouble for several tweets in the past. There was the breastfeeding debacle that made him look like an insensitive ass. Then there was the suggestion that LoMo was being demoted in 2011 because of his tweets. Not the fact that he was hitting .249 and seemed to lose his way at the plate. His agent suggested it was something else; Larry Beinfest was esoteric in saying Morrison needed to focus on baseball.

Yet, “Trader” Jack McKeon’s words may have proved more prophetic than salty:

“You’ve got to leave your distractions at the door,” McKeon said. “Too many young guys come into the game today and think they’ve got it made. They’re the darlings of the media and they want to run their mouth instead of tending to business. The record books are full of one- and two-year phenoms.”

Recently, Morrison drew the ire of more fans for his comments on Jason Collins’ coming out party. The blog, StripClubWithStanton (appropriately named) attacked Morrison for a seemingly insensitive tweet about possibly receiving fashion advice from a potentially gay teammate.

The MarlinsDaily cataloged LoMo’s incessant annoyance via Twitter and also remarked that this was how Morrison is “branding” himself. Yet Morrison has always been “honest” or at the very least, transparent with his opinions. Here he is commenting openly about disagreeing with the firing of then hitting coach, John Mallee.

It would seem someone doesn’t get it. Morrison continues to spout off at the mouth via Twitter and gets himself into unnecessarily hot water. He seems to think it is his prerogative to share his opinions with everyone else and frankly, it is for this very reason Twitter is successful. People don’t necessarily want inspiring, uplifting tweets, they want garbage and things that tear others down. That is how our society works today and anyone who doesn’t realize that, well, they are just being blind. That said, it is surprising that Morrison continues to tweet AND underperform. Does he realize that no one cares about his tweets precisely because he has no real success in MLB?

Dave Samson noted that no one would care about his tweets if they were coming from New Orleans. Right now, it looks like Morrison will resort to anything in order to tread the water of relevancy. Let’s hope he has a speedy recovery so we can find out once and for all if he is a servicable big leaguer who is more than just bombastic tweets. If anything, we could find ourselves wanting Ozzie Guillen back if that was all Marlin fans wanted.

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With Marlins Offense Anemic, Some Changes Must Be Made

April 21, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

ap-marlins-spring-baseball-x-largeThe good news is, the Marlins have the pitching and the defense to make a push for a strong run. They could, potentially, rattle off 5-10 wins in a row. Then there is the bad news – the offense just plain sucks. They can’t scratch out runs, let alone score runs in bunches.

Nothing new to report there. The Marlins knew they were going to be challenged at scoring runs and there was a recognition that there would be a power outage this year. The lone power threat, Giancarlo Stanton, has yet to hit a home run or even an RBI in his 43 ABs. But there is hope – Stanton is not the only hitter in the lineup with the ability to hit for power and as soon as some of these injuries sort themselves out, he may actually be getting some protection in the lineup.

Justin Ruggiano has 3 home runs right now, hitting 2 on this road trip in Cincinnati on back to back nights. When you look at the lineup, he is hitting behind Greg Dobbs in the 5th spot. Why not slide him behind Stanton to give him a little more protection?

Manager Mike Redmond is trying to get blood from a stone here, but his strategy appears to be sound. He has Stanton batting 3rd so that he will be guaranteed an AB in the 1st inning. Sounds good except pitchers tend to be a little more adjusted after the first two batters and the next inning they start changing their pitching approach around. The thought is that Stanton will be able to sneak in there with RISP and get something going. So far, that hasn’t happened.

The Marlins best overall hitter right now is Placido Polanco who, with RISP, is hitting .467. In fact he is hitting .286 when ahead in the count and .304 when behind in the count. Although he is more apt to hit in the #2 slot, he could slide down and be an effective turn over hitter in the first inning if anyone gets on base in front of him or if he just needs to get on to extend the inning for Stanton.

Which then leaves us with Ruggiano. He offers better protection behind Stanton because not only has he demonstrated he has pop in his bat, he is a pretty good high pitch hitter and if a pitcher walks Stanton to get to Ruggiano, his control may slip a bit and he could very well leave a pitch hanging for Ruggiano to do something with. Even if that doesn’t play out, Ruggiano is a better option behind Stanton than anyone else in the lineup and it is time for Redmond to recognize that and scrap the Dobbs experiment.

Speaking of Greg Dobbs, it is time to get Joe Mahoney some time in at 1B. Not only does he offer a big defense target for the defense over there, but he is a lefty bat with lots of pop. If he could get going, he too could offer something this lineup is lacking – the ability to score runs in bunches and drive in runs.

The Marlins don’t strike out – which is a good thing. They are currently rated 6th in all of baseball with a 6.83 K per game average. What is more telling though is that they are 3rd in the league with regards to sacrifices per game – the Fish are sporting a 0.61 average for sacs per game; only San Francisco (0.72) and San Diego (0.76) are above them.

So what gives? Well, there has been an attempt to call the Marlins LOB City, but they are not the worst. Their current average is 13.67 LOB per game, 15th in MLB (the worst is Detroit 18.71). The team is putting the ball in play, getting sacrifices when it needs to, and is right in the middle when it comes to leaving men on base. Here’s why – hits per game. The Marlins are 30th in MLB with a 6.72 average. The best? Detroit with a 10.24 average – which is why their LOB average is so high, When you hit that much a game, you are guaranteeing that you will leave men on.

The input from the Marlins is low but they are definitely maximizing their output as much as they can. They are putting the ball in play, they are not striking out, they do sac to get runners over, but they just aren’t hitting enough to score runs. Very rarely do the Marlins actually get more than one hit per inning – as their average testifies. So, what is the solution? Bunch up all the power you have and give it a chance to make a bigger splash.

Redmond has spread out his power bats a bit trying to generate scoring opportunities in each inning but it flat out doesn’t work. The Marlins need to isolate their power and give themselves a chance to score in bunches every couple of innings or so. To do that, they need to have Stanton protected by Ruggiano, the only guy proven right now to hit with power. They can then follow him with Mahoney or Dobbs. Then turn the lineup over again with the bottom of the order.

Basically, the Marlins have a plethora of #2 slot hitters – guys who can hit behind a runner on base, but not necessarily have the ability to drive them in. If you look at those types of hitters on this roster, you have Donovan Solano, Placido Polanco, Rob Brantly, Chris Coghlan. Juan Pierre is a leadoff hitter and Adeiny Hechavarria is inconsistent to this point to really have a proper appraisal of what kind of a hitter he can be. He may be a #2 guy, but he can hit with some pop from time to time, too. If he can continue to cut down on his K rate, he may offer some interesting upside to complement his stellar defense.

All of this is prologue towards Logan Morrison’s eventual return. What kind of a hitter he will be once he returns remains to be seen, but he has the promise and the ability to be a major offensive threat while holding down 1B. With his return, he could be better served to bat behind Stanton or even in front of him. The core of the Marlins power then becomes Ruggiano, Stanton, and Morrison but until that day arrives, the Marlins will have to take their chances with what they have.

Another good thing to keep in mind is that Stanton is a notoriously slow starter. He usually fares poorly in April but gets hotter as the season moves along. He has the ability to carry a team’s offense, but that probably won’t surface until he gets more ABs and gets hot moving towards May.

Keep an eye on Christian Yelich, too. He is not healthy yet, but he will get some ABs in AA Jacksonville. If he gets hot down there, and Juan Pierre continues this “funk” he is in, the Marlins may be tempted to call up the wunderkid and see what he can do. Yes, there is the possibility that we don’t see him anytime until after the All Star Break so that the clock is not started early on his arbitration but if the Marlins are serious about winning (ahem, Jeffrey Loria) then they will make that call much like they did with Jose Fernandez.

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Stanton Takes One Off the Noggin; Morrison is Free to Run

February 20, 2013 in Injuries, Spring Training

ap-marlins-spring-baseball-x-largeA smattering of injury-related topics from Spring Training today.

Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the head by a 95 MPH fastball from Marlins’ stud prospect Jose Fernandez in a simulated game today. X-rays came back negative and no signs of a concussion are apparent at this time although the Marlins are, expectedly, cautious with Stanton. Fernandez usually has great control and this one got away from him. Stanton gave him an “it’s all good” and had excellent perspective on this so the kids are all-right.

Meanwhile, Logan Morrison got the green light to run on his surgically repaired knee. The Marlins are hoping for an Opening Day return but in all likelihood, LoMo will miss more time trying to get acclimated and into game-shape. If lessons of the past are of any study, the Marlins will take their time and be cautious with LoMo and shoot for a few extra weeks for his expected return. Morrison is arguably in his most important year of his career as he should be progressing into an everyday player at this point and with injury plaguing his performance last year, the only reason he was kept was because his contract still offers value to his team.

Casey Kotchman, hoping to score some playing time at 1B while Morrison is out, is recovering from a cut ring finger he injured while banging into a machine shagging a fly ball. Kotchman’s defense, and experience, will help solidify the Marlins plans while Morrison recovers.

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Logan Morrison An Illustration of Everything That Was Wrong With the Marlins

February 16, 2013 in Injuries, Spring Training

logan_01_display_imageLong on potential, short on production, to my mind there is no stronger illustration of everything that was wrong with the Marlins 2012 season than Logan Morrison. He spends more time on Twitter than he does analyzing his approach to the plate and refining his game. I even caught a tweet of his during a game once – and I am sure it has happened more than that.

Let’s get something clear – I am not saying I do not like the guy. This kid came out of nowhere and became a big prospect for the Marlins as a first baseman that could just work the count and hit the ball wherever, and whenever, he wanted. Then he had some personal tragedy with the death of his father: obviously a large part of his life Morrison is now faced with living in a world without someone who had such a large influence on him. Who wouldn’t be rooting for him?

And let’s not forget that his two knee surgeries are the result of horrible handling by the Marlins. Morrison should never have been rushed to play last season and as a result, he was running around in LF in pain on nightly defensive adventures and had to get surgery in September to alleviate damage and pain in his right knee. His offense was never there, nor was his defense, and he missed most of the 2nd half of the season while only playing in 93 games. We love his antics but would love it more if he was a productive player first.

Now, he is not going to be at full strength and ready to run as Spring Training is descending upon us all. This is a decision that the Marlins made last season that they are now paying for this season. Perhaps it was all of the hype and excitement over a new ballpark and new players and all of the electricity. For whatever reason, the hangover is now that the Marlins are faced with one of their brightest prospects now at risk of becoming a wash as he has yet to put together a productive season.

So the Fish have to patch together some ideas for 1B and also find a way to bridge the offense until Morrison comes back – and when he does, it will take some time for him to get acclimated with playing everyday at 1B. That is why Joe Mahoney and Casey Kotchman were brought in, and Austin Kearns and Greg Dobbs are expected to be mixed in there from time to time.

With Morrison out, perhaps longer than he ever should have been as the result of poor choices, there is no better illustration of what went wrong with the Marlins. His production suffered and he never lived up to his billing last season. The wins didn’t come, and the team utterly and disasterly failed. And Lomo, for all of his lovable tweets and antics, has to now focus on delivering on the field instead of growing his “brand” via Twitter and other social networks. He has to get back to work, repair the damage, and find a way to deliver on a once promising future.

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Spring Training: Stories of Redemption and Reclamation Many with Marlins

February 10, 2013 in Spring Training

sHmtYWwJust looking over the roster for Spring Training with the Marlins, many will recognize some of the faces but many will also fail to recognize many more. There are some familiar ones: Juan Pierre, Giancarlo Stanton, Ricky Nolsaco. There are many that will need some guidance for fans: Alfredo Silverio, Sam Dyson, Joe Mahoney.

Yet one thing is consistent this spring; no matter who is in camp it is most likely they are there to redeem themselves or reclaim their MLB careers. Well, that is pretty much anyone other than Stanton anyway.

Alfredo Silverio, the Marlins Rule 5 Draft pick from the Dodgers, was in a horrific car accident this time a year ago, heading into Dodgers camp looking to establish himself as an everyday major leaguer and getting ready to lock down an outfield spot. The young player had shown great promise across the board – he could play defense, could run, and could hit with power and had pretty good contact skills. This summer, he is expected to make the Marlins 25 man roster (or he will revert back to the Dodgers organization) and with his speed, he could play anywhere in the OF defensively. Will he be able to reclaim his career?

Chone Figgins was supposed to be in the final year of a mega contract he signed back in 2010 with the Seattle Mariners. Instead, the Mariners paid him the $8M they owed him for this upcoming season and told  him to go away. He has been invited to spring with the Marlins on a minor league contract and if he makes the team, is only owed the league minimum. Still, even though the speedy utility player (who has played a lot of third base) has had a horrific three year stint with the Mariners, his move to Miami offers him a change of scenery and camaraderie with buddy Juan Pierre – who has recently returned to the Marlins in the twilight of his career to help this team. Will Figgins be able to redeem himself and the money he was expected to earn? Will he be able to reclaim a future career here in south Florida, or anywhere in MLB?

There are many in this scenario. Joe Mahoney, former minor league player of the year with the Orioles, is looking to redeem himself. Kevin Kouzmanoff, a solid third baseman for years in Kansas City, is looking to reclaim his career. John Maine, a one blue-chipped prospect with the Orioles and eventually a solid pro with the Mets, hasn’t pitched in the bigs in 2 years but had looks from the Rockies, Red Sox, and Yankees. Matt Downs had a solid 2011 campaign with the Astros but hitting .202 last season landed him in Miami trying to reclaim his career.

The key thing here is getting a bunch of competitive players in camp, all trying to win spots and prove themselves, in order to change the atmosphere of this team. Last season, there were unreal expectations poured upon this team just because they signed some checks. We see now, a year later, that those checks could not be cashed. It was a Ringling-style PR campaign that went wild, whatever the intentions, and this team flamed out before even Showtime could all it a “rap” on their reality show.

Logan Morrison, who most likely will be out for the first month of the season and also will be looking to redeem himself after a season of hobbled injuries and high expectations, said it loud and clear. This team is the hungriest in baseball. No one has guarantees beyond this season; everyone is playing for a new deal, more money, or just trying to prove themselves and to win. Whatever the feelings are about this past offseason or even last season, this team is different and the fans will notice a more intense bunch as led by new manager, and former Marlin champion, Mike Redmond. If there was a fuel that could drive players, it would best be that of redemption. It certainly makes for a better story. If this 2013 team can win, they just may, as a team, redeem themselves to their fans as well.

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