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Marlins Competitive Spring Training and More

January 29, 2013 in Offseason, Spring Training

Looks like there is a lot of discussion about things on the field all of a sudden for the Marlins. Let’s sift through some notables:

Marlins add 31 non-roster players to their Spring Training roster and the Sun-Sentinel has the names. They have more players reporting to camp (71) than wins last season (69). Competitive advantage? Or bargain hunting?

Beinfest notes the talent pool and the potential openings will lead to better competition on the field. Interestingly, in regards to selecting new players, character seems to play a larger role in the evaluation portion. How that is quantified, remains a mystery but is certainly the most subjective part of the Marlins’ analysis of assets:

“When we’ve done our homework on the prospects coming back, the makeup of the player has been important,” he said. “So we feel we’re bringing in guys that are one, winners, and two, high quality people that are going to perform and work hard every day.”

Rule 5 draft pick, Alfredo Silverio looks to resurrect his promising career in the OF a year after a very severe car accident. He has shown an ability to hit, run, and field the ball. Justin Ruggiano is the slated starter for CF but depending on what this guy can show, and he is expected to be on the 25 man roster (or he goes back to the Dodgers), the Marlins may have a talented young player in the OF. If anything providing depth.

The Logan Morrison story continues to grow into a big concern. His knee surgery and the bad handling of it project him to not be able to get into the lineup until about one month into the season. In the meantime, who will man 1B? The Marlins picked up Joe Mahoney from the Orioles, a 6’6″ 1B/OF to get some depth. He may get in there as the Opening Day starter, which would be a scary thought for some. Then again, maybe Kevin Kouzmanoff slides over there. An interesting note is the fact that Mahoney grew up a Yankees fan and Tino Martinez is the new hitting coach. Not that there is any correlation, but Mahoney is a lefty that can play the corner infield and maybe Martinez will show him a way to cultivate a solid professional approach.

 

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Free Agent Options for Marlins Heading Into 2013 Are Slight

November 25, 2012 in Offseason

Let’s pretend for a second that the Marlins had loads of money to spend on free agency this 2012-2013 offseason. Who would they target? What would their game plan be? What assets would fit?

Keep in mind, the stated goal of the front office is to improve on last season’s win total and NOT to finish in last place in their division. The 69 wins from last year, despite a $111M payroll, was deemed not sufficient and the roster was blown up – the debate rages on whether or not this was the right call (see the Red Sox deal with the Dodgers to gain a little more perspective).

So what would a reasonable goal be? .500? The Phillies finished 81-81 last season but they also had a reported payroll of $174M – that is not an efficient financial model to get those results. That is roughly $2.1M per win. The Marlins paid out about $1.7M per win last season. In terms of runs scored (RS) and runs allowed (RA) the Phillies were only +4 on the season. They had a total of 684 RS and 680 RA to get there. The Marlins? They had only 609 RS and 724 RA for a difference of -115 on the season. If the Marlins use the Phillies as a barometer, then they would have to increase their RS by 75 and decrease their RA by 44. In other words, the Marlins have to find a way to pick up .46 runs per game and drop .27 runs allowed per game over the course of next season. How?

Let’s look at what the Marlins have first. We need to target any areas of weakness the Marlins are looking to shore up. Glancing at the roster depth as of now, the Marlins have a few areas of need notably 3B and starting pitching. Giancarlo Stanton is a tremendous  hitter surely to produce runs if hitters can get on base in front of him. If the Marlins can increase their ability to get hits and get on base, they surely will be able to score runs. The Marlins were one of the worst run producers last season despite the leadoff success of Jose Reyes’ .284 AVG. Often times, there was no one hitting behind him consistently enough to drive him in. The Marlins will be depending on a young, unproven cast to get hits but there is reason for optimism. Logan Morrison, playing 1B, will be at his natural defensive position and looked to as a leader on the club. Hitting third, in front of Stanton, will help him get better pitches to see and if he can get back to his patient hitting approach he showed in the minors, the Marlins have a solid 3 and 4 hitting crew in their lineup. Justin Ruggiano provided steady offense, putting the ball in play, hitting for average, and giving the Marlins power from the CF spot in the field. He can slide down to 5 or hit earlier in the lineup if needed. Leading off most likely will be Juan PIerre, in his second tour with the Fish. He hit .307 last season and is the MLB active leader in stolen bases so he will provide speed and contact at the top of the lineup. Donovan Solano provided steady defense and solid offense and he should continue to do so moving over to 2B, his natural position on the field. Adeine Hechavarria is the Marlins SS of the future now and is looked for primarily for his defensive prowess. His hitting is a question mark but clearly the Marlins feel they have addressed this position. Catcher may be more of a platoon with Rob Brantly and Jeff Mathis solidifying the position defensively and if they can provide anything on offense, it will be considered a plus (remember that John Buck only hit .192 as the starter last season).

That means the only question mark is Yunel Escobar – will he stay and play 3B or will he be shopped? If he stays, the Marlins feel they have a temporary solution at 3B and he could provide solid defense to go along with a near .300 AVG and possibly double digit home run power. This, however, is usually an area where teams get power production and this could be targeted as an area of need for the Marlins. The question is, are there any free agents available that could help the Marlins right away? If you look at the free agent list of 3B, the only notable is Kevin Youkilis and his offensive production is in decline. Would his contract be a source of value for this franchise and would it be attainable given the current circumstances? No, not likely.

It looks like the Marlins will have to stay internal to figure this out. They could play Greg Dobbs there, but he is best suited to come off the bench. Solano could slide over and play 3B leaving options at 2B. Austin Barnes, who led the Marlins in hits last year in the minors (152H) may be a long term solution. We could even see a return of Chris Coghlan at 2B, maybe even get some time in LF or 3B considering he hits anywhere like he did in 2009.

At the end of the day, the Marlins don’t seem to have a lot of options to improve on the field via the free agent market at this time that would fit within the confines outlined by the front office. So, don’t expect a big splash here. Does this mean the Marlins can improve offensively? They can’t do much worse and given Tino Martinez’s hire to be the hitting coach, with Redmond’s managerial skills, this team could see an uptick on offense if they get Stanton to perform like he did last season and get Morrison to finally realize his potential. If everyone else hits on their projection, you have a solid offense that can move the ball around but won’t scare anyone.

Which brings us to pitching. The starting rotation will be anchored by Ricky Nolasco, followed by Jacob Turner, then Henderson Alvarez via the Blue Jays trade, next will be Nathan Eovaldi, and finally a 5th starter maybe Wade LeBlanc. Turner is supposed to be the anchor of this staff in the future and was highly regarded by the Tigers but so was Andrew Miller. Along with the rest of the rotation, outside of Nolasco, this staff is largely unproven. They are scrappy and will scatter hits but don’t have fireball stuff that the Marlins staffs of the past were known for. Jose Fernandez, one of the top 20 prospects in MLB, waits in the wings down in the minors and is expected to be an impact prospect and could get some time mid-late 2013. There most likely will be an injury or two and depending on this staff to perform better than last year’s may be a stretch, but given the production overall of last year’s staff and the cost (see Carlos Zambrano and his $19M), it can’t get much worse. Maybe Ricky Nolasco can replace Mark Buerhle’s production – he is in the final year of his contract.

Are there targets on the free agent list that can help the Marlins? Not really. Most contracts that would provide solid value would be attached to players advanced in age (Kevin Millwood is 38, Ryan Dempster is 36, Roy Oswalt is 35). There are a few, however, that could present solid additions but also are risks. Brandon McCarthy doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, but doesn’t walk a lot either, and has had a respectable +3 ERA the past two seasons – the only caveat is that he hasn’t started more than 25 games ever. McCarthy pulled in $4.2M last season. Carlos Villanueva is another interesting pickup but he has been a guy who has swung back and forth between the bullpen and the starting rotation, fitting in wherever needed. Villanueva is looking for a promise of 30 starts next season and made $2.2M last season.

What to expect? Nothing Huge

If the Marlins make any moves for free agent signings, expect them to target 3B and starting pitching as those may be the two largest areas of concern for this team to improve on 69 wins and finish out of the basement for next season. There are limited options for 3B, so expect the Marlins either hold onto Yunel Escobar and see what he can do or try to find another solution internally. As for starting pitching, the starting staff is vastly unproven and with Alvarez, Eovaldi, and even LeBlanc penciled in, that may not be enough fire power over the course of a season to win 20 games among the three of them. If the Marlins make a move, don’t expect Zack Greinke, but instead think players like McCarthy or Villanueva who are looking to make the next step in their careers and need an opportunity to do so. The Marlins would take a calculated risk and not get in over their heads while hoping to develop the younger members on their staff. At the same time, there are few real impact options out there – even Greinke is a risk with his social anxiety leaving a huge question mark on his worth. Josh Hamilton would provide a large bat, and recognition, but is also a risk due to his health record. Would he be worth $100M risk? The Marlins seem to have balked at that after getting a taste of Jose Reyes and not being totally blown away.

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Not Safe At Home: An Analysis of the Marlins Trade With the Blue Jays

November 20, 2012 in Offseason

Some want to claim that this is the end of the line for the Marlins. That this deal will destroy their franchise and kill baseball in Miami once and for all. Others, a little more apologetically, urge caution and say that this deal does make baseball sense – if anyone is willing to listen to reason.

Somewhere in the middle is the truth.

Yes, the Marlins broke free of their three year watch period as issued by MLB. Accused of just trying to pocket their revenue sharing money, back in 2009 the Marlins books were being watched by officials. In the offseason of 2012 the Marlins happened to shed over $150M in payroll owed by the team through 2018 right after the eyes on them were removed. Coincidence?

The fans cry out for justice. They accuse Loria of trying to destroy the franchise. Some have even tried to issue a protest at Marlins Park this week, but so far, no serious press has been made of it. Their poor heartstrings were tugged on with these players and they are crying foul. They want their tax money back and the team to be tossed out.

But who’s to blame here? Is the front office? Should the owner and his diminutive stepson be vilified? What about the supposed promise made from the Marlins brass about not trading the big ticket players they acquired last season? Oh! The moral implications! How dare they break unwritten promises to professional athletes only here for one year! And on a team that managed to win 69 games nonetheless!

Everyone, calm down. One of the biggest culprits here is getting away scot-free – the fans of the Marlins. (Here’s a heavy-handed article that is not balanced, but does call out the fan base for a change.) You are as much to blame here as your owner, president, and GMs. But even that isn’t enough. The real problem has to do with perception and the funny history of baseball in south Florida.

First of all, you had a fire sale after the 1997 championship. That was due to Wayne Huizenga acting like a spoiled brat and wanted to take his ball and go home. So he did. And he kicked everyone out. Dave Dombrowski, a shrewd GM, was able to amass a lot of young talent that would become the core of the 2003 championship team. That you can call a success, if you choose to see it as a Phoenix-like story. Huizenga did a good thing though – he did strip the team down and sold it off (at a profit) and didn’t leave the cupboard bear. He also passed along some payroll flexibility to new owner John Henry, but locked him into a horrific lease that pretty much soaked up most of the revenue from the team.

Henry, failing to net a stadium, sold the team to Loria (via a shift of ownership from Montreal to Florida, while Henry moved on to Boston). The 2003 championship in the debut of the new manager looked significant but doubts harbored around Loria because of his past in Montreal. The team was dismantled in 2005 after winning 83 games because of revenue troubles, but it was hardly a fire sale like back in ’97. Still, with the suspicion abounding, Loria never got the fair treatment that say, a team like the Red Sox would get, when they decided to shed their payroll significantly this past season. Again, it’s all about perception.

The fans in Miami tend to be short-sighted at best. Overly emotional, vastly undereducated about the sports they supposedly love. The Heat only have a huge following because they had the greatest offseason in human history back in 2010. The Dolphins have the longest history, but even that team is not drawing as well as it used to. The Marlins? 18th in attendance – and that is with a brand new park and over $100M in payroll last season. And once again, perception wins out.

The fans don’t fully realize that you have to build a winner with a strong foundation. You have to have a core of players that can win and play the way your organization envisions – and you use free agency to fill the gaps to get that team over the hump. In 2003, the Marlins did just that getting Ivan Rodriguez as an experiment but also in trading for Ugueth Urbina to close games. The gambit worked and they got themselves a championship because the core players – Mike Lowell, Derek Lee, Luis Castillo, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis – were all developed by the Marlins and with a focus on winning as a team.

The big market teams try to build big – with big name free agents to “reload”. They also have deeper pockets and lots of revenue. If they mess up on a $100M contract, they can scratch around and eat the loss. A team like the Marlins still have a tighter margin of error and Loria’s assessment and reaction to scrap a team that cost $111M but only won 69 games is a bold one, but the right one. The contracts of the players being sent away are not ideal as there are many questions about whether or not those deals can be of fair value over the life of those contracts.

Is Jose Reyes worth another $96M for another 6 years? He has a history of being injured and his offensive production has never amounted to winning baseball (see his Mets years and his lone year as a Marlin). Mark Buehrle is 34 and owed another 3 years. What kind of a pitcher will he be by the end of his contract? Once again, these deals are also heavily backloaded which means they will be owed most of their money when they are most likely in decline as players. Why? John Buck? Well, he sucks. Plain and simple. Josh Johnson is in the final year of his contract but is arguably not worth $13M – you could have Zack Greinke for nearly that kind of dough (if you want to take a risk on a socially awkward ace). Emilio Bonifacio is a loss, but you have to give something to get something. You can always find more speed – Bonifacio was acquired for Josh Willingham, after all.

Again, this is all about perception. Fans, a majority of them only reacting to emotion, fail to see the bigger picture. This team is here to stay. Maybe Loria will be around, maybe not. The fact of the matter is this franchise is now worth significantly more than when he bought it – and that makes it a very attractive asset. The fans, however, complain that they want a major league team in their major league ballpark. And they are right – they deserve one and the ability to compete is much more greatly amplified because of the new park and increased revenue. Yet, we should also have a major league fan base with a major league turnout. Enough with the excuses. If people were going to games, despite the 69 wins, this team might actually think twice about alienating its fan base. Yet, there were few at the games so, what fan base would they really alienate?

So, at the end of the day, a baseball decision was made to try and rebirth this team. In order to do that, you need a strong core and you need more young talent to get that. You can regroup and build up through free agency – the Marlins did add Juan Pierre as a replacement for speed and leadoff hitting. The fact he is a familiar name (and played with Redmond) are all positives, too. He did hit .307 last year also.

The Marlins are not going to add huge names this offseason. Nor should they. It would make them out to be confused and possibly hypocritical. They need to target missing pieces to hold down the fort and make this team competitive for the next few years while they develop their young talents. Who is going to play 3B? Kevin Youkilis would be a nice addition, but not at the price he is trying to get. For the right price, he would be a nice fit, provide solid defense, experience, some leadership. Maybe some offense, but nothing like he used to provide. That said, there are much better options out there. Even the Red Sox might align with the Marlins’s view on this one.

The Marlins are making the tough call on this one, but they are getting it right and moving in the right direction. They are rebuilding their farm system, acquiring 3 of the Blue Jays top 10 prospects, and bringing them to their system, which already sports Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez (both of whom are among the top 20 of all prospects throughout the entire league). The future is bright for the Marlins – they have an emerging farm system reloading with young talent and payroll flexibility. Heat fans can attest to the wonders of having payroll flexibility but you have to have the right targets in mind.

The foundation is laid, but the only question remains is that can the Marlins fan base perceive it? This is all about perception – and the front office cannot spend time trying to sell everyone on rebuilding with a young team. They have to go out and show that their turnaround is much quicker and that just shooting for 70 wins is not enough – but trying to buy a championship will not work either. Regardless, this team is here for the long haul and it is shaping up for a much more enduring build that last year’s free agent mercenaries.

Which brings us to one final point. Since when do teams have to be loyal to their free agent signings? If they signed them with the promise to win more games and play in games that matter, why should these professional athletes not be jettisoned when they don’t deliver? After all, players will quickly leave a team that developed them to chase more money. It isn’t like Reyes and Buerhle are not going to get paid (even though there is a significant tax increase heading to Toronto – yeah socialism!). And the fans? Please. Most of them just grabbed new jerseys because they said “Miami” on them. The glitz of getting big name free agents, although exciting, didn’t help the team win. We all should be chasing the bums out of town. All of them. The owner did that for us. It’s not enough, but it is a start.

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