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A Glimpse Into the Future: What Are the Plans for the Marlins Outfield?

May 19, 2013 in Contracts, Fish Farm, Injuries, Regular Season

Marcell-Ozuna-Getty-ImagesWe may have a slight problem.

Giancarlo Stanton is poised to be coming off the DL soon. He is running on an anti-gravity treadmill – no, it is nothing out of Star Trek, just a vest that he wears while running on a treadmill to take his weight off of his body while he runs. He has been showing signs of progress and should be back sooner rather than later from a Grade 2 hamstring pull. Estimates are a few more weeks; he has missed 18 straight games since going on the DL on April 29th and reportedly has had an injection of plasma to help his recovery.

The other side of this is, what happens when he does return? Many were weighing in today on Twitter as we all watched Marcell Ozuna hit a blast to left center to score 2 runs to eventually prove the difference in this afternoon’s win. It looks as if Ozuna is going to stick for the remainder of the season. He is hitting .299 with 1 HR and 8 RBI in 62 ABs. He has a rocket arm in RF and can play excellent defense to boot. Stanton is the team’s starting RF, so in all likelihood, Ozuna would shift to LF.

That brings us to the LF situation. Having Juan Pierre is a defensive liability, and his offense is predicated on getting on base and wreaking havoc with his speed. Although he has been able to steal 13 bases thus far, and provided solid leadership and hustle every game, the Marlins offense is going nowhere without any means to provide pop in the lineup. In all likelihood, we may see Juan Pierre’s playing time downgraded to a backup situation, or platoon in LF with Ozuna from time to time.

Christian Yelich is lurking in AA Jacksonville, waiting for his call up. His position? LF. He has arguably the most promising bat in the entire Marlins farm system so he could dislodge Ozuna from LF, too. Yelich has played CF and can field that position as well. So, another scenario would mean that Yelich is called up to man CF.

Which then brings us to yet another domino – what do the Marlins do about Jake Marisnick and his future and Justin Ruggiano and his present? Ruggiano has provided some pop and looks to be a solid trade bait option down the road. This may be the most likely scenario for him as the Marlins move forward, given the progress of Ozuna and Yelich. In Marisnick, the Marlins can afford to wait longer and let his bat mature more. He has the tools to be a very good CF in the bigs and right now, could be a gold glove caliber defender in CF. He may actually be the Marlins best defensive outfielder in their farm system.

Another wild idea here could be to move Stanton to 1B. It wouldn’t happen this season, but if he could learn to field the position a bit, he could be moved to 1B and allow for Ozuna to resume his natural position in RF, Yelich slides back to LF, and Marisnick gets his spot in CF. If that is the scenario the Marlins shoot for, that leaves them with loads of talent they could flip for more prospects – Ruggiano, Pierre, Coghlan. All three of those OFers could be solid veteran bats for playoff contending teams looking to add depth down the stretch. Given their flexible contracts, they would provide extra value for the Fish, too. And if the Marlins plan on moving Stanton to 1B, Logan Morrison becomes expendable and could be a highly sought after bat down the stretch as well.

Ricky Nolasco continues to build his value – his 8 inning, 11 K performance this afternoon puts him back on the market and ahead of other options that my be on teams’ radars. Combining him with a Ruggiano, Pierre, Coghlan, or even Morrison gives the Marlins even more flexibility in making deals to shore up their talent pool even further.

We have also started to ask questions about the 2B situation – is Derek Dietrich the future there or will he be moved over to 3B? In moving Dietrich to 3B, they retain Donovan Solano and his value as a 2B with a solid glove and ability to hit out of the 2 hole while also gaining Dietrich’s bat and glove at a position with a huge void for the Fish into the foreseeable future. Placido Polanco is not a long term solution to be sure, so the Marlins must either trade for a 3B or move a prospect into that spot to fill a need.

All of these scenarios only point to one factor – the Marlins are in a position to improve internally with the talent they have been building with while also being in a position to acquire more talent to further strengthen what looks to be a rising future.

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With Marlins Offense Anemic, Some Changes Must Be Made

April 21, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

ap-marlins-spring-baseball-x-largeThe good news is, the Marlins have the pitching and the defense to make a push for a strong run. They could, potentially, rattle off 5-10 wins in a row. Then there is the bad news – the offense just plain sucks. They can’t scratch out runs, let alone score runs in bunches.

Nothing new to report there. The Marlins knew they were going to be challenged at scoring runs and there was a recognition that there would be a power outage this year. The lone power threat, Giancarlo Stanton, has yet to hit a home run or even an RBI in his 43 ABs. But there is hope – Stanton is not the only hitter in the lineup with the ability to hit for power and as soon as some of these injuries sort themselves out, he may actually be getting some protection in the lineup.

Justin Ruggiano has 3 home runs right now, hitting 2 on this road trip in Cincinnati on back to back nights. When you look at the lineup, he is hitting behind Greg Dobbs in the 5th spot. Why not slide him behind Stanton to give him a little more protection?

Manager Mike Redmond is trying to get blood from a stone here, but his strategy appears to be sound. He has Stanton batting 3rd so that he will be guaranteed an AB in the 1st inning. Sounds good except pitchers tend to be a little more adjusted after the first two batters and the next inning they start changing their pitching approach around. The thought is that Stanton will be able to sneak in there with RISP and get something going. So far, that hasn’t happened.

The Marlins best overall hitter right now is Placido Polanco who, with RISP, is hitting .467. In fact he is hitting .286 when ahead in the count and .304 when behind in the count. Although he is more apt to hit in the #2 slot, he could slide down and be an effective turn over hitter in the first inning if anyone gets on base in front of him or if he just needs to get on to extend the inning for Stanton.

Which then leaves us with Ruggiano. He offers better protection behind Stanton because not only has he demonstrated he has pop in his bat, he is a pretty good high pitch hitter and if a pitcher walks Stanton to get to Ruggiano, his control may slip a bit and he could very well leave a pitch hanging for Ruggiano to do something with. Even if that doesn’t play out, Ruggiano is a better option behind Stanton than anyone else in the lineup and it is time for Redmond to recognize that and scrap the Dobbs experiment.

Speaking of Greg Dobbs, it is time to get Joe Mahoney some time in at 1B. Not only does he offer a big defense target for the defense over there, but he is a lefty bat with lots of pop. If he could get going, he too could offer something this lineup is lacking – the ability to score runs in bunches and drive in runs.

The Marlins don’t strike out – which is a good thing. They are currently rated 6th in all of baseball with a 6.83 K per game average. What is more telling though is that they are 3rd in the league with regards to sacrifices per game – the Fish are sporting a 0.61 average for sacs per game; only San Francisco (0.72) and San Diego (0.76) are above them.

So what gives? Well, there has been an attempt to call the Marlins LOB City, but they are not the worst. Their current average is 13.67 LOB per game, 15th in MLB (the worst is Detroit 18.71). The team is putting the ball in play, getting sacrifices when it needs to, and is right in the middle when it comes to leaving men on base. Here’s why – hits per game. The Marlins are 30th in MLB with a 6.72 average. The best? Detroit with a 10.24 average – which is why their LOB average is so high, When you hit that much a game, you are guaranteeing that you will leave men on.

The input from the Marlins is low but they are definitely maximizing their output as much as they can. They are putting the ball in play, they are not striking out, they do sac to get runners over, but they just aren’t hitting enough to score runs. Very rarely do the Marlins actually get more than one hit per inning – as their average testifies. So, what is the solution? Bunch up all the power you have and give it a chance to make a bigger splash.

Redmond has spread out his power bats a bit trying to generate scoring opportunities in each inning but it flat out doesn’t work. The Marlins need to isolate their power and give themselves a chance to score in bunches every couple of innings or so. To do that, they need to have Stanton protected by Ruggiano, the only guy proven right now to hit with power. They can then follow him with Mahoney or Dobbs. Then turn the lineup over again with the bottom of the order.

Basically, the Marlins have a plethora of #2 slot hitters – guys who can hit behind a runner on base, but not necessarily have the ability to drive them in. If you look at those types of hitters on this roster, you have Donovan Solano, Placido Polanco, Rob Brantly, Chris Coghlan. Juan Pierre is a leadoff hitter and Adeiny Hechavarria is inconsistent to this point to really have a proper appraisal of what kind of a hitter he can be. He may be a #2 guy, but he can hit with some pop from time to time, too. If he can continue to cut down on his K rate, he may offer some interesting upside to complement his stellar defense.

All of this is prologue towards Logan Morrison’s eventual return. What kind of a hitter he will be once he returns remains to be seen, but he has the promise and the ability to be a major offensive threat while holding down 1B. With his return, he could be better served to bat behind Stanton or even in front of him. The core of the Marlins power then becomes Ruggiano, Stanton, and Morrison but until that day arrives, the Marlins will have to take their chances with what they have.

Another good thing to keep in mind is that Stanton is a notoriously slow starter. He usually fares poorly in April but gets hotter as the season moves along. He has the ability to carry a team’s offense, but that probably won’t surface until he gets more ABs and gets hot moving towards May.

Keep an eye on Christian Yelich, too. He is not healthy yet, but he will get some ABs in AA Jacksonville. If he gets hot down there, and Juan Pierre continues this “funk” he is in, the Marlins may be tempted to call up the wunderkid and see what he can do. Yes, there is the possibility that we don’t see him anytime until after the All Star Break so that the clock is not started early on his arbitration but if the Marlins are serious about winning (ahem, Jeffrey Loria) then they will make that call much like they did with Jose Fernandez.

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Jacob Turner Sent Down; Giancarlo Goes For Two

March 26, 2013 in Spring Training

Andiamoooooooo Giancarlo! Well, the play call I keep hoping to hear still hasn’t surfaced yet, but if it did, you would hear it twice today. Stanton hit two home runs, one mammoth shot to the top of the batter’s eye in straightaway CF, as the Marlins flexed some muscle and beat the Nats 8-5 today. Chris Valaika also went yard and our boy, Chris Coghlan hit a pinch-hit home run, too. Wondering if he will be the starter in CF, but that looks like it is Ruggiano’s job and Coghlan’s best hope is to make the roster – which leaves Gorkys Hernandez future in question.

It did become official though – Jacob Turner is being sent down to AAA NOLA to work on his control. Mike Redmond admitted it was a tough decision, but the young starter was not really able to show control with his pitches. He was being touted as the team’s #2 starter, but due to his spring struggles, he was not able to deliver. Instead, Nathan Eovaldi takes the second slot followed by Wade LeBlanc, Henderson Alvarez, and Kevin Slowey.

With more roster news, it looks like Casey Kochman, Austin Kearns, and Chad Qualls are going to break camp with the team. Kearns is batting a might .092 this spring, but the Fish are in need of any kind of power they can get. Kochman has a gold-glove talent at 1B and will be used as the de facto starter until Logan Morrison can get back healthy.

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Demotions, Lawsuits, and Other Notes

March 23, 2013 in Spring Training

Looks like I was wrong about Chone Figgins. Despite hitting .318 this spring with the Fish, he is not viewed as a valued asset over other options the Marlins have in house. He was released by the Marlins this past Wednesday, leaving the team with 42 players left in camp. That means that Figgins could not displace Nick Green, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Matt Downs, and Chris Valaika as an option. Figgins could also play the OF, but with a battle for CF ongoing between Chris Coghlan, Gorkys Hernandez, and Justin Ruggiano, it looks like the team doesn’t need help their either. Juan Pierre is good friends with Figgins, but not so much as to give up his time in LF. I was kind of hoping that Figgins would be an Emilio Bonifacio replacement, but it looks like the Marlins don’t need that. Figgins was a low risk move, as his contract was bought out by Seattle, so it is surprising the Marlins let him go despite solid numbers. That said, the bottom line is Kevin Kouzmanoff will likely win the backup 3B job as he can provide some pop and can also play some 1B.

I was not wrong about Christian Yelich, however – who was demoted. We all know Wonderboy can hit, can field, can do it all – but he hasn’t done it above single A. That is, until this spring when he was wrecking opponent pitching and having fun with the whole thing. He hit .364 with 5 homers and 14 RBIs. The scary thing is, this kid has not reached physical maturity yet. He has all the tools, right now, to be an everyday OF on this club but would have to sort things out experientially. Probably another factor in the Figgins decision was that if Pierre does go down, they can call up Yelich right away. That said, expect this kid to make his debut after the all star break and help propel the Marlins on a surprising run. Teams typically delay bringing up top prospects until mid-June to push their arbitration eligibility back another year – and that is really the final decision to be made on Yelich. He’ll head on up north to AA Jacksonville and play for the legendary Suns – along with Jake Marisnick and Marcell Ozuna. The folks in north Florida could be seeing the OF of the future for the Marlins come 2014 (minus Giancarlo Stanton, of course!).

Looks like the PR firm the Marlins hired aren’t doing a great job of advising their clients. The latest is this lawsuit over season ticket holders not re-upping their seats for next year. They paid $25,000 to sit along the 3B side, but declined to renew because of the addition of a billboard along the 3B fence they were sitting at protrudes about 7″ above where it was at the start of the season. They were contractually obligated to renew for this season at $25,000. Since the Marlins jettisoned their roster, it is likely these clients of the Marlins decided to cut bait, too. We’ll see if the judges agree but most likely this will create more agita for the franchise that was just trying to run out the clock on this latest trade. It would have behooved the Marlins to make a deal in silence and not let this publicity come to light – again.

Wade LeBlanc struggled against the Nationals, but he has been great all spring. In fact, Joe Capozzi seems to suggest, via dialogue with Mike Redmond, that the 5th spot is LeBlanc’s to lose. He is a lefty, and has pitched pretty well all spring, but against the Nats he struggled in keeping the ball down in the zone, something Redmond has been preaching all spring. John Maine may make a play for a spot in the rotation, if Jacob Turner doesn’t get another strong outing. In the very least, both Kevin Slowey and John Maine look to make the roster as long relievers with the potential to spot start. Alex Sanabia, as good as he is, may be the odd man out.

Nathan Eovaldi looks to be the #2 starter behind Ricky Nolasco, who had a strong outing last night against the Mets, throwing 101 pitches. Nolasco is the unquestionable ace of this staff, whether or not he lives up to that remains to be seen but he is relishing the opportunity, reports say. Eovaldi has great stuff and has been able to harness control of his repertoire so his progress looks really good. Henderson Alvarez still seems like a bit of a mystery to me, he gives up a lot of hits still. Jacob Turner will be fine – he is only 21 but has good poise on the mound. The only concern is his leveling off of his velocity, which seems to be stuck on only 91. If he can’t sort things out, the Marlins will replace him with either Slowey or Maine and let him work it out in AAA NOLA.

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Observations vs Mets 3/16

March 16, 2013 in Spring Training

A couple of things are standing out to me while watching this game against the Mets today in Port Saint Lucie. Kevin Slowey has solid stuff. That 5th starter spot is going to be a tough decision with Wade LeBlanc, John Maine, Alex Sanabia, and Slowey in the mix. They might just have to keep all of them around to give the Fish more options for starting pitching if young arms aren’t quite up to snuff (Jacob Turner does seem to be coming around; Nathan Eovaldi looks like the solid #2 at this point; Henderson Alvarez remains a bit of an unquantifiable enigma at this point).

Chris Coghlan continues to put a solid bat on the ball, and hits to all fields with authority. He looks like he should be the opening day center fielder while Rugs works his way back into game shape.

Speaking of spraying the ball, Adeiny Hechavarria is not getting results, but he continues to put the ball up the middle part of the field. The kid has the tools to be an everday SS defensively right now, but his offense continues to need work. There is improvement in how he handles the bat and it seems his peak would be to become a Tony Fernandez like SS – who was his mentor with the Blue Jays.

Love @Peteypipes, but the guy is just not good enough to have on a MLB roster.

Chone Figgins should make this team no matter what. His experience will prove valuable along with guys like Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco in the clubhouse. These guys will help set the tone for the younger players in the locker room. Besides, the AB he had in the 9th inning shows what kind of a hitter this guy can be, and what kind of leadership he could bring – he drew a 17 pitch walk.

Christian Yelich is going to be called up this year. He has 4 home runs and his approach is extremely advanced for a hitter his age. He has a smooth, lefty swing which the announcers for the Mets likened to a young Shawn Green, which is a very nice comparison – but Yelich projects to have better offensive numbers. The kid is just cool and has star quality. He probably will be at AA Jax just long enough to get Jake Marisnick back and it will be hard to keep Yelich out of the 305 area code for long. Enjoy him while you can Jacksonville.

Kevin Kouzmanoff should make the roster for his forearms alone. He looks like he is in good shape and has a solid enough approach at the plate. Would be a nice backup to Polanco or could platoon with Figgins.

Casey Kochman should win the opening spot at 1B. Will Joe Mahoney make the roster or be sent down for more PT?

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Marlins Spring Training 2013: Key Battles Emerging for CF, 5th Spot in Rotation, IF

March 8, 2013 in Spring Training

The Marlins spring is really getting some notice around baseball. This is a team that has purged payroll, yet again, and has reverted back to a youth movement. Although this has netted much criticism from fans, it does seem to have promise for the immediate future. The Marlins are winning games and playing highly competitive baseball at all positions.

They are getting solid pitching performances from their arms, they are getting lots of contact and already improvements in situational hitting seem to be emerging.

Yet, there are still several key battles for roster spots taking shape. Right now, the starting CF spot is up for grabs. Justin Ruggiano, the apparent shoe-in at the start of spring, has been suffering from a bad back and is now looking over his shoulder at former 2009 ROY Chris Coghlan. Coghlan has been impressing coaches with his ability to slice the ball to all parts of the field and make contact. He only has 3 strike outs in 24 ABs and also has amassed 6 hits (not including the 4-4 performance against Venezuela the other night). Coghlan may have played himself right back into the extra OF spot, if not into a possible starting role as the season gets underway in the next month. Ruggiano will make his spring debut Saturday.

Another key position that is in the thick of battle is the fight for the right to start every fifth day out for the Fish. The front runner was supposed to be Wade LeBlanc, a lefty who impressed last season, but other starters have been brought in to offer a little more competition for the spot. John Maine has been very solid all spring and Alex Sanabia also looks ready to go. LeBlanc has a 0.00 ERA with 6Ks in 5IP thus far. Maine has put together some great numbers, too holding a 1.80 ERA in 5IP and hitters are hitting .118 off of him right now. And then there is Alex Sanabia, who has pitched 4.1 IP but also has a 0.00 ERA with 4 Ks and hitters are hitting .067 against him. Sanabia may be the most intriguing of the bunch given his age and how consistent his stats have been. These seem to be the final three in contention for that final rotation spot but don’t be surprised if all three make the roster and give more options to the coaching staff as they move through a long season and will need help to protect against possible injury.

Then there is the search for extra infielders. Right now the Marlins are looking at Nick Green, Matt Downs, and Chone Figgins. Green has been steady in the field and does offer some flexibility, but his bat is not overly impressive at this point in the spring. Matt Downs offers some pop but also hasn’t really put together enough strong ABs but does have 1HR and only 4 Ks in 21 ABs. His big league resume has a bit more weight than Nick Green’s. But if it was all about the resume, then Chone Figgins would be locked up by a team right now, instead he is still in search of that final roster spot. That said, this is why he will win out – he is friends with Juan Pierre and can provide a replacement for Emilio Bonifacio as he is looking to reclaim his career. Both Downs and Figgins can play 3B, which may be a realistic option considering Placido Polanco’s back ails. In fact, Downs made a nice play at 3B today against the Yankees, further pushing himself into position to stick with the team. Figgins, however, can play middle infield and OF if necessary.

There are more notable players that still need to be examined more closely – Kevin Kouzmanoff, Joe Mahoney, and Casey Kotchman are all trying to get prime time at 1B with Logan Morrison still out and not getting back into full baseball mode quite yet.

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