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A Glimpse Into the Future: What Are the Plans for the Marlins Outfield?

May 19, 2013 in Contracts, Fish Farm, Injuries, Regular Season

Marcell-Ozuna-Getty-ImagesWe may have a slight problem.

Giancarlo Stanton is poised to be coming off the DL soon. He is running on an anti-gravity treadmill – no, it is nothing out of Star Trek, just a vest that he wears while running on a treadmill to take his weight off of his body while he runs. He has been showing signs of progress and should be back sooner rather than later from a Grade 2 hamstring pull. Estimates are a few more weeks; he has missed 18 straight games since going on the DL on April 29th and reportedly has had an injection of plasma to help his recovery.

The other side of this is, what happens when he does return? Many were weighing in today on Twitter as we all watched Marcell Ozuna hit a blast to left center to score 2 runs to eventually prove the difference in this afternoon’s win. It looks as if Ozuna is going to stick for the remainder of the season. He is hitting .299 with 1 HR and 8 RBI in 62 ABs. He has a rocket arm in RF and can play excellent defense to boot. Stanton is the team’s starting RF, so in all likelihood, Ozuna would shift to LF.

That brings us to the LF situation. Having Juan Pierre is a defensive liability, and his offense is predicated on getting on base and wreaking havoc with his speed. Although he has been able to steal 13 bases thus far, and provided solid leadership and hustle every game, the Marlins offense is going nowhere without any means to provide pop in the lineup. In all likelihood, we may see Juan Pierre’s playing time downgraded to a backup situation, or platoon in LF with Ozuna from time to time.

Christian Yelich is lurking in AA Jacksonville, waiting for his call up. His position? LF. He has arguably the most promising bat in the entire Marlins farm system so he could dislodge Ozuna from LF, too. Yelich has played CF and can field that position as well. So, another scenario would mean that Yelich is called up to man CF.

Which then brings us to yet another domino – what do the Marlins do about Jake Marisnick and his future and Justin Ruggiano and his present? Ruggiano has provided some pop and looks to be a solid trade bait option down the road. This may be the most likely scenario for him as the Marlins move forward, given the progress of Ozuna and Yelich. In Marisnick, the Marlins can afford to wait longer and let his bat mature more. He has the tools to be a very good CF in the bigs and right now, could be a gold glove caliber defender in CF. He may actually be the Marlins best defensive outfielder in their farm system.

Another wild idea here could be to move Stanton to 1B. It wouldn’t happen this season, but if he could learn to field the position a bit, he could be moved to 1B and allow for Ozuna to resume his natural position in RF, Yelich slides back to LF, and Marisnick gets his spot in CF. If that is the scenario the Marlins shoot for, that leaves them with loads of talent they could flip for more prospects – Ruggiano, Pierre, Coghlan. All three of those OFers could be solid veteran bats for playoff contending teams looking to add depth down the stretch. Given their flexible contracts, they would provide extra value for the Fish, too. And if the Marlins plan on moving Stanton to 1B, Logan Morrison becomes expendable and could be a highly sought after bat down the stretch as well.

Ricky Nolasco continues to build his value – his 8 inning, 11 K performance this afternoon puts him back on the market and ahead of other options that my be on teams’ radars. Combining him with a Ruggiano, Pierre, Coghlan, or even Morrison gives the Marlins even more flexibility in making deals to shore up their talent pool even further.

We have also started to ask questions about the 2B situation – is Derek Dietrich the future there or will he be moved over to 3B? In moving Dietrich to 3B, they retain Donovan Solano and his value as a 2B with a solid glove and ability to hit out of the 2 hole while also gaining Dietrich’s bat and glove at a position with a huge void for the Fish into the foreseeable future. Placido Polanco is not a long term solution to be sure, so the Marlins must either trade for a 3B or move a prospect into that spot to fill a need.

All of these scenarios only point to one factor – the Marlins are in a position to improve internally with the talent they have been building with while also being in a position to acquire more talent to further strengthen what looks to be a rising future.

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Marlins Losing Continues, But Team Not As Bad As Their Record Indicates

May 17, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

Yes, the Marlins are 11-30. Despicable. Deplorable. But is this team really that bad?

The Fish have had tons of injuries. Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison, Jeff Mathis, Donovan Solano, Joe Mahoney, Casey Kotchman – the list goes on and on. It hasn’t helped this team gain any consistency at all at any point in the season thus far. Not an excuse, but it certainly doesn’t help matters that two of your starters and three of your everyday position players are out.

That said, the Marlins have been able to fill holes – if you can see it that way. Marcell Ozuna has been called up to replace Giancarlo Stanton in RF; Derek Dietrich was brought up to spell some time at 2B for Donovan Solano. Kevin Slowey, Alex Sanabia, Tom Koehler, and Wade LeBlanc have all been valuable in eating innings as starters.

But is the team really as bad as a team that is 11-30? Not really when you look at the stats.

The Marlins are averaging 2.76 runs per game – last in the league. They are last in the league in hits per game (7.41), just below the Nationals (7.51). They are 20th in MLB in surrendering 4.37 runs per game to their opponents. The Marlins have amassed a run differential over the season of -66 runs thus far on the season. That is just -1.6 runs per game differential over the course of the season.

Marlins basically have to find a way to score another 1.6 runs per game to break even on their run differential, which would also push them towards becoming a realistic .500 team the rest of the way out. When you look at the guys they are getting back within the month, they may just get to that point.

Stanton and Morrison, provided the latter can start hitting anything like he did a few seasons ago, may have enough to mix this lineup into something more substantial. When you consider the young guys currently here and hitting (Dietrich, Ozuna) you may have a lot more depth and pop, too. Consider:

  1. Juan Pierre
  2. Donovan Solano
  3. Giancarlo Stanton
  4. Logan Morrison
  5. Justin Ruggiano
  6. Placido Polanco
  7. Adeiny Hechavarria
  8. Rob Brantly

You could flip Hechavarria to the 2 spot, or even plop Dietrich in there at 3B (for Polanco) or at 2B. Ozuna could play RF out right, or possibly move to LF (or have Stanton move to LF) to add more pop. All of this before even considering the arrival of Christian Yelich or Jake Marisnick.

Can the Marlins score more runs later in the year and become a more formidable offense later in the year? Very likely. Getting Mahoney and Kotchman back forces Greg Dobbs back into his role as a pinch hitter. The Marlins get deeper.

The Marlins are bad right now – not necessarily a bad team, just a bad team to watch. They can’t score runs and it seems infectious. All it takes is the right addition of hitters in the lineup and all of that could change.

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Donovan Solano Is Proving He’s Number Two

May 2, 2013 in Players, Regular Season

donovan solanoLast year, Donovan Solano had a pretty good rookie season that seemed to fly under the radar of most. This season, it looked as if maybe it was a fluke.

Solano was making uncharacteristic fielding errors while also hitting with an average hovering around .180. Although he looked more confident on the field, as he and Adeiny Hechavarria look like an excellent defensive combo and with his spot basically going unchallenged, he wasn’t quite performing up to expectation.

Although he struggled this year, he has been able to get back on  a tear. Currently he is batting .275 on the year, but his success seems to be tied to hitting out of the number two spot. For the year, he is batting .295 in 44 ABs with a .311 OBP and .341 SLG. By contrast, in the #8 spot, he is hitting .172 in 29 ABs.

Last year, Solano seemed to find his groove in the #2 spot, too. He hit .295 and got 105 ABs there. It is starting to look like not only is Solano comfortable hitting out of the two slot, but even Redmond is getting comfortable with him which is critical as this team starts to forge its identity and get a solid lineup going.

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With Marlins Offense Anemic, Some Changes Must Be Made

April 21, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

ap-marlins-spring-baseball-x-largeThe good news is, the Marlins have the pitching and the defense to make a push for a strong run. They could, potentially, rattle off 5-10 wins in a row. Then there is the bad news – the offense just plain sucks. They can’t scratch out runs, let alone score runs in bunches.

Nothing new to report there. The Marlins knew they were going to be challenged at scoring runs and there was a recognition that there would be a power outage this year. The lone power threat, Giancarlo Stanton, has yet to hit a home run or even an RBI in his 43 ABs. But there is hope – Stanton is not the only hitter in the lineup with the ability to hit for power and as soon as some of these injuries sort themselves out, he may actually be getting some protection in the lineup.

Justin Ruggiano has 3 home runs right now, hitting 2 on this road trip in Cincinnati on back to back nights. When you look at the lineup, he is hitting behind Greg Dobbs in the 5th spot. Why not slide him behind Stanton to give him a little more protection?

Manager Mike Redmond is trying to get blood from a stone here, but his strategy appears to be sound. He has Stanton batting 3rd so that he will be guaranteed an AB in the 1st inning. Sounds good except pitchers tend to be a little more adjusted after the first two batters and the next inning they start changing their pitching approach around. The thought is that Stanton will be able to sneak in there with RISP and get something going. So far, that hasn’t happened.

The Marlins best overall hitter right now is Placido Polanco who, with RISP, is hitting .467. In fact he is hitting .286 when ahead in the count and .304 when behind in the count. Although he is more apt to hit in the #2 slot, he could slide down and be an effective turn over hitter in the first inning if anyone gets on base in front of him or if he just needs to get on to extend the inning for Stanton.

Which then leaves us with Ruggiano. He offers better protection behind Stanton because not only has he demonstrated he has pop in his bat, he is a pretty good high pitch hitter and if a pitcher walks Stanton to get to Ruggiano, his control may slip a bit and he could very well leave a pitch hanging for Ruggiano to do something with. Even if that doesn’t play out, Ruggiano is a better option behind Stanton than anyone else in the lineup and it is time for Redmond to recognize that and scrap the Dobbs experiment.

Speaking of Greg Dobbs, it is time to get Joe Mahoney some time in at 1B. Not only does he offer a big defense target for the defense over there, but he is a lefty bat with lots of pop. If he could get going, he too could offer something this lineup is lacking – the ability to score runs in bunches and drive in runs.

The Marlins don’t strike out – which is a good thing. They are currently rated 6th in all of baseball with a 6.83 K per game average. What is more telling though is that they are 3rd in the league with regards to sacrifices per game – the Fish are sporting a 0.61 average for sacs per game; only San Francisco (0.72) and San Diego (0.76) are above them.

So what gives? Well, there has been an attempt to call the Marlins LOB City, but they are not the worst. Their current average is 13.67 LOB per game, 15th in MLB (the worst is Detroit 18.71). The team is putting the ball in play, getting sacrifices when it needs to, and is right in the middle when it comes to leaving men on base. Here’s why – hits per game. The Marlins are 30th in MLB with a 6.72 average. The best? Detroit with a 10.24 average – which is why their LOB average is so high, When you hit that much a game, you are guaranteeing that you will leave men on.

The input from the Marlins is low but they are definitely maximizing their output as much as they can. They are putting the ball in play, they are not striking out, they do sac to get runners over, but they just aren’t hitting enough to score runs. Very rarely do the Marlins actually get more than one hit per inning – as their average testifies. So, what is the solution? Bunch up all the power you have and give it a chance to make a bigger splash.

Redmond has spread out his power bats a bit trying to generate scoring opportunities in each inning but it flat out doesn’t work. The Marlins need to isolate their power and give themselves a chance to score in bunches every couple of innings or so. To do that, they need to have Stanton protected by Ruggiano, the only guy proven right now to hit with power. They can then follow him with Mahoney or Dobbs. Then turn the lineup over again with the bottom of the order.

Basically, the Marlins have a plethora of #2 slot hitters – guys who can hit behind a runner on base, but not necessarily have the ability to drive them in. If you look at those types of hitters on this roster, you have Donovan Solano, Placido Polanco, Rob Brantly, Chris Coghlan. Juan Pierre is a leadoff hitter and Adeiny Hechavarria is inconsistent to this point to really have a proper appraisal of what kind of a hitter he can be. He may be a #2 guy, but he can hit with some pop from time to time, too. If he can continue to cut down on his K rate, he may offer some interesting upside to complement his stellar defense.

All of this is prologue towards Logan Morrison’s eventual return. What kind of a hitter he will be once he returns remains to be seen, but he has the promise and the ability to be a major offensive threat while holding down 1B. With his return, he could be better served to bat behind Stanton or even in front of him. The core of the Marlins power then becomes Ruggiano, Stanton, and Morrison but until that day arrives, the Marlins will have to take their chances with what they have.

Another good thing to keep in mind is that Stanton is a notoriously slow starter. He usually fares poorly in April but gets hotter as the season moves along. He has the ability to carry a team’s offense, but that probably won’t surface until he gets more ABs and gets hot moving towards May.

Keep an eye on Christian Yelich, too. He is not healthy yet, but he will get some ABs in AA Jacksonville. If he gets hot down there, and Juan Pierre continues this “funk” he is in, the Marlins may be tempted to call up the wunderkid and see what he can do. Yes, there is the possibility that we don’t see him anytime until after the All Star Break so that the clock is not started early on his arbitration but if the Marlins are serious about winning (ahem, Jeffrey Loria) then they will make that call much like they did with Jose Fernandez.

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Fish Stew: Marlins Spring Training 2013 Sunday Edition 3/3

March 3, 2013 in Spring Training

So, what is going on in the world of the Miami Marlins? Let’s pull up some chairs and take a look.

Dan Le Batard finally weighs in on the whole Jeffrey Loria thing. States that basically, this franchise has to win back the trust of the fans – but did they ever truly have it in the first place? Credibility is at the core of the problem for the Marlins and Le Batard, surprisingly for him, makes the case that the Marlins are the victims here. Read on! We kind of addressed it from a similar angle.

Greg Cote chews on the unpopularity of Loria as well.

Marlins sign Giancarlo Stanton – for $537K. Long term negotiations will come and the Marlins should do whatever they can to keep Stanton in Miami; even if that means overpaying. The only way to repair the long term damage done to this team is to show by your actions that you are committed to winning and keeping Stanton will do just that. Going to write something on this soon. Miguel Cabrera ended up netting $7.4M in his first year of arbitration and then was dealt (in arguably the most one sided trade in Marlins history, if not in baseball).

Jose Reyes sticks to his story about Loria and the whole house-buying discussion. It’s a he-said, he-said situation and the only clear way out is to back either Reyes or Loria. Whomever has more credibility will win the day, but does that mean Reyes is right? Personally, I don’t think it makes any sense for Loria to lie on this one but at the same time, if Reyes is not telling the truth, why does he feel the need to throw Loria under the bus?

Alex Sanabia is vying for the 5th spot in the rotation and is contending mostly with John Maine and Wade LeBlanc. He had a solid performance yesterday in Port Saint Lucie against the Mets going 2IP with 1K, no runs, and no BBs. Remember to vote in our poll for who you think will eventually win the 5th starting spot (my money is on LeBlanc).

Marlin legend Mike Lowell made a visit with the team to help out good friend Mike Redmond. He also was on the bench during the Marlins v. Mets game in Port Saint Lucie yesterday, where the Fish had to settle for an 8-8 tie after 9 innings. This is a good thing for the Marlins who are trying to sell themselves back to the fans. It shows that not all former players are bitter and hate this ownership group – especially when Lowell freely shares his thoughts about the team and the feelings from the fans’ perspectives. Wonder if he would take a one year deal to play 3rd again…

Adeiny Hechavarria gained a very strong endorsement from Hanley Ramirez, according to Jefrey Loria. Hech will be a defensive gem at SS, the question is can he hit enough to make him a quality SS or at best, another Rey Ordonez. He does have some ability to hit the ball and make contact, but he will never put up the kind of numbers Hanley Ramirez did – in his prime as a Marlin, of course. Still, there is a lot of buzz about the Marlins’ middle infield tandem in Hechavarria and Donovan Solano.

By the way – just a side note. Sun-Sentinel has decided to go behind a pay wall. Although I think this is a great move to protect their paper and business, this could backfire. Everyone will instead just read the Miami Herald or Palm Beach Post and push the Sun-Sentinel to the back. Not sure if they think they are the New York Times or not, but interesting to see if this works out for them. We can’t cite their articles because it would require users to create accounts to read them. Just something to consider Sun-Sentinel!

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Spring Training 2013: Can Marlins Improve Up the Middle With Solano and Hechavarria?

February 21, 2013 in Spring Training

1tsJGb.St.84Reports out of early Spring Training is that both Donovan Solano and Adeiny Hechavarria, the newly acquired Cuban SS from the Blue Jays this past offseason, are turning heads already.

Solano mashed a home run in a simulated game off of Steve Cishek on Wednesday then hit another home run today. Solano was able to turn heads last year, hitting .410 in the spring, and getting an early call up when the opportunity was available. He turned that into a .295 clip over the course of his stint with the Marlins last season, splitting time at various positions in the infield.

Hechavarria’s defense is easily his strength but his hitting is going to be where the Marlins are hoping for some upside. So far, they are impressed. He hit a triple to right center, showing his speed and ability to spray hits. This is the kind of thing the Marlins will be looking for to make sure Hechavarria does not become a Rey Ordonez-type SS – slick glove but no bat. He did hit .312 in Las Vegas but that is in the PCL where hitters tend to feast. Still, he did have a .363 OBP and he has the ability to steal bases – something he definitely will be expected to do when he gets on base for the Fish.

The two players already have been noted for having pretty good chemistry defensively, too. Solano is making his bid to be the full time 2B for the Marlins and Hechavarria has also been given the keys to the left side of the infield. It will be vital for both of them to have good chemistry when turning double plays as the Marlins defense looks to be a critical piece of any success they are to have in the 2013 season.

Another plus is that fielding guru Perry Hill returns to help the Marlins defense regain its composure. With a staff of mostly young players, it is critical that good coaching is instilled to help speed along their development. In Solano, the Marlins have a guy who is steady and doesn’t play outside himself. Defensively, expect the Marlins to at least be on par with their middle infield from last season (Omar Infante and Jose Reyes). In a way, the production of Hechavarria and Solano could illustrate the direction of this team.

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