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A Glimpse Into the Future: What Are the Plans for the Marlins Outfield?

May 19, 2013 in Contracts, Fish Farm, Injuries, Regular Season

Marcell-Ozuna-Getty-ImagesWe may have a slight problem.

Giancarlo Stanton is poised to be coming off the DL soon. He is running on an anti-gravity treadmill – no, it is nothing out of Star Trek, just a vest that he wears while running on a treadmill to take his weight off of his body while he runs. He has been showing signs of progress and should be back sooner rather than later from a Grade 2 hamstring pull. Estimates are a few more weeks; he has missed 18 straight games since going on the DL on April 29th and reportedly has had an injection of plasma to help his recovery.

The other side of this is, what happens when he does return? Many were weighing in today on Twitter as we all watched Marcell Ozuna hit a blast to left center to score 2 runs to eventually prove the difference in this afternoon’s win. It looks as if Ozuna is going to stick for the remainder of the season. He is hitting .299 with 1 HR and 8 RBI in 62 ABs. He has a rocket arm in RF and can play excellent defense to boot. Stanton is the team’s starting RF, so in all likelihood, Ozuna would shift to LF.

That brings us to the LF situation. Having Juan Pierre is a defensive liability, and his offense is predicated on getting on base and wreaking havoc with his speed. Although he has been able to steal 13 bases thus far, and provided solid leadership and hustle every game, the Marlins offense is going nowhere without any means to provide pop in the lineup. In all likelihood, we may see Juan Pierre’s playing time downgraded to a backup situation, or platoon in LF with Ozuna from time to time.

Christian Yelich is lurking in AA Jacksonville, waiting for his call up. His position? LF. He has arguably the most promising bat in the entire Marlins farm system so he could dislodge Ozuna from LF, too. Yelich has played CF and can field that position as well. So, another scenario would mean that Yelich is called up to man CF.

Which then brings us to yet another domino – what do the Marlins do about Jake Marisnick and his future and Justin Ruggiano and his present? Ruggiano has provided some pop and looks to be a solid trade bait option down the road. This may be the most likely scenario for him as the Marlins move forward, given the progress of Ozuna and Yelich. In Marisnick, the Marlins can afford to wait longer and let his bat mature more. He has the tools to be a very good CF in the bigs and right now, could be a gold glove caliber defender in CF. He may actually be the Marlins best defensive outfielder in their farm system.

Another wild idea here could be to move Stanton to 1B. It wouldn’t happen this season, but if he could learn to field the position a bit, he could be moved to 1B and allow for Ozuna to resume his natural position in RF, Yelich slides back to LF, and Marisnick gets his spot in CF. If that is the scenario the Marlins shoot for, that leaves them with loads of talent they could flip for more prospects – Ruggiano, Pierre, Coghlan. All three of those OFers could be solid veteran bats for playoff contending teams looking to add depth down the stretch. Given their flexible contracts, they would provide extra value for the Fish, too. And if the Marlins plan on moving Stanton to 1B, Logan Morrison becomes expendable and could be a highly sought after bat down the stretch as well.

Ricky Nolasco continues to build his value – his 8 inning, 11 K performance this afternoon puts him back on the market and ahead of other options that my be on teams’ radars. Combining him with a Ruggiano, Pierre, Coghlan, or even Morrison gives the Marlins even more flexibility in making deals to shore up their talent pool even further.

We have also started to ask questions about the 2B situation – is Derek Dietrich the future there or will he be moved over to 3B? In moving Dietrich to 3B, they retain Donovan Solano and his value as a 2B with a solid glove and ability to hit out of the 2 hole while also gaining Dietrich’s bat and glove at a position with a huge void for the Fish into the foreseeable future. Placido Polanco is not a long term solution to be sure, so the Marlins must either trade for a 3B or move a prospect into that spot to fill a need.

All of these scenarios only point to one factor – the Marlins are in a position to improve internally with the talent they have been building with while also being in a position to acquire more talent to further strengthen what looks to be a rising future.

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Marlins Losing Continues, But Team Not As Bad As Their Record Indicates

May 17, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

Yes, the Marlins are 11-30. Despicable. Deplorable. But is this team really that bad?

The Fish have had tons of injuries. Nathan Eovaldi, Henderson Alvarez, Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison, Jeff Mathis, Donovan Solano, Joe Mahoney, Casey Kotchman – the list goes on and on. It hasn’t helped this team gain any consistency at all at any point in the season thus far. Not an excuse, but it certainly doesn’t help matters that two of your starters and three of your everyday position players are out.

That said, the Marlins have been able to fill holes – if you can see it that way. Marcell Ozuna has been called up to replace Giancarlo Stanton in RF; Derek Dietrich was brought up to spell some time at 2B for Donovan Solano. Kevin Slowey, Alex Sanabia, Tom Koehler, and Wade LeBlanc have all been valuable in eating innings as starters.

But is the team really as bad as a team that is 11-30? Not really when you look at the stats.

The Marlins are averaging 2.76 runs per game – last in the league. They are last in the league in hits per game (7.41), just below the Nationals (7.51). They are 20th in MLB in surrendering 4.37 runs per game to their opponents. The Marlins have amassed a run differential over the season of -66 runs thus far on the season. That is just -1.6 runs per game differential over the course of the season.

Marlins basically have to find a way to score another 1.6 runs per game to break even on their run differential, which would also push them towards becoming a realistic .500 team the rest of the way out. When you look at the guys they are getting back within the month, they may just get to that point.

Stanton and Morrison, provided the latter can start hitting anything like he did a few seasons ago, may have enough to mix this lineup into something more substantial. When you consider the young guys currently here and hitting (Dietrich, Ozuna) you may have a lot more depth and pop, too. Consider:

  1. Juan Pierre
  2. Donovan Solano
  3. Giancarlo Stanton
  4. Logan Morrison
  5. Justin Ruggiano
  6. Placido Polanco
  7. Adeiny Hechavarria
  8. Rob Brantly

You could flip Hechavarria to the 2 spot, or even plop Dietrich in there at 3B (for Polanco) or at 2B. Ozuna could play RF out right, or possibly move to LF (or have Stanton move to LF) to add more pop. All of this before even considering the arrival of Christian Yelich or Jake Marisnick.

Can the Marlins score more runs later in the year and become a more formidable offense later in the year? Very likely. Getting Mahoney and Kotchman back forces Greg Dobbs back into his role as a pinch hitter. The Marlins get deeper.

The Marlins are bad right now – not necessarily a bad team, just a bad team to watch. They can’t score runs and it seems infectious. All it takes is the right addition of hitters in the lineup and all of that could change.

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Jose Fernandez is MarlinsNation Pick for Rookie With Biggest Potential Contribution for 2013

April 26, 2013 in Regular Season

Well, the results of our poll are in. 39% of you voted for Jose Fernandez to be the young player on the Marlins who will have the biggest impact on the season.

Adeiny Hechavarria came in 2nd with 22% of the votes. Right now Hech is on the DL but is looking like he will make his return on schedule when May 2 rolls around.

Some of you who have a bit more of a prophetic view picked Christian Yelich with 17% of the votes. He is still currently with AA Jacksonville after serving the first few weeks on the DL himself.

Kyle Skipworth, Steve Cishek, both nabbed 6% of the votes while Nathan Eovaldi has only 4% of the votes. Eovaldi was slated to be the #2 starter as Spring Training wound down, but he is currently on the 60 day DL with inflammation in his right shoulder and is not eligible to return until May 30th.

Right now, it looks like your prognostication is spot on.

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Fish Farm: Hitters Turning Heads at AA Jacksonville

April 23, 2013 in Fish Farm

It may not be who you expected. There are some hitters that are turning heads at AA Jacksonville, but it isn’t the big three OFers in Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, or Jake Marisnick. Yelich is working his way back from injury, as is Ozuna, and Marisnick is still waiting to be cleared to play.

No, it is names like Derek Dietrich, Zack Cox, Kyle Jensen, and Mark Canha who are showing some need for a promotion.

Derek Dietrich, acquired in Yunel Escobar trade with the Tampa Bay Rays back in December, is logging time at 2B. He is currently hitting .288 with a .440 OBP, .492 SLG, and .932 OPS. Brought along in the Rays system as a SS, he has been slid over to 2B and could possibly convert to 3B if he continues to hit. The Marlins do have an immediate need for a 3B but even with Donovan Solano struggling a bit, Dietrich just may get a longer look at 2B, too.

Dietrich is not the only former college stud to be cruising along right now – Zack Cox, acquired in the Edward Mujica trade with the Cardinals back in July of last season, is heating up. He currently is batting .340 with a .453 OBP, .453 SLG, and a .906 OPS. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .355 with 11 hits in 31 ABs and only 4 Ks. He is manning 3B and if his offense can continue to improve, he may play his way up to the big leagues soon, or at least get a call up to face AAA pitching. He hasn’t hit a home run yet, but Cox doesn’t project to hit tons of homers, more like a 15-20 guy if he pans out but his defense is above average.

Kyle Jensen has plenty of power. He hit 27 HRs and 24 HRs over the past two seasons. The only question for him is, can he provide a sustainable approach at the plate once he gets to higher levels of baseball? That power has come at a price, with 137 Ks and 162 Ks in those past two seasons, too. That is over a K per game. Right now, the power is there (2 HRs in 57 ABs) but so are the Ks (18 in 17 games). He is hitting .263 with .394 OBP, .421 SLG, and .815 OPS. With the big three getting the focus, expect Jensen to get a little more time at AA JAX but with a more conservative approach, he should mature into a promising power hitter for the club down the road. He also may be moved to 1B to make him a little more dynamic and more marketable.

Which brings us to Mark Canha. A power hitting 1B prospect who hit 25 HRs back in 2011 at Greensboro, the power numbers took a dip last season. Yet his K’s and his average went up, so his maturity as a hitter may just now be starting to take root. The California 1B does have 2 HRs but is batting only .259. Yet over his last 10 games, Canha is catching fire hitting .389 with 2 HRs, 14 hits in 36 ABs, and only 8 Ks. If Canha can continue making this sort of progress, he will definitely make the leap he started last season as a hitter but also bring back the power that he showed in 2011.

 

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With Marlins Offense Anemic, Some Changes Must Be Made

April 21, 2013 in Offense, Regular Season

ap-marlins-spring-baseball-x-largeThe good news is, the Marlins have the pitching and the defense to make a push for a strong run. They could, potentially, rattle off 5-10 wins in a row. Then there is the bad news – the offense just plain sucks. They can’t scratch out runs, let alone score runs in bunches.

Nothing new to report there. The Marlins knew they were going to be challenged at scoring runs and there was a recognition that there would be a power outage this year. The lone power threat, Giancarlo Stanton, has yet to hit a home run or even an RBI in his 43 ABs. But there is hope – Stanton is not the only hitter in the lineup with the ability to hit for power and as soon as some of these injuries sort themselves out, he may actually be getting some protection in the lineup.

Justin Ruggiano has 3 home runs right now, hitting 2 on this road trip in Cincinnati on back to back nights. When you look at the lineup, he is hitting behind Greg Dobbs in the 5th spot. Why not slide him behind Stanton to give him a little more protection?

Manager Mike Redmond is trying to get blood from a stone here, but his strategy appears to be sound. He has Stanton batting 3rd so that he will be guaranteed an AB in the 1st inning. Sounds good except pitchers tend to be a little more adjusted after the first two batters and the next inning they start changing their pitching approach around. The thought is that Stanton will be able to sneak in there with RISP and get something going. So far, that hasn’t happened.

The Marlins best overall hitter right now is Placido Polanco who, with RISP, is hitting .467. In fact he is hitting .286 when ahead in the count and .304 when behind in the count. Although he is more apt to hit in the #2 slot, he could slide down and be an effective turn over hitter in the first inning if anyone gets on base in front of him or if he just needs to get on to extend the inning for Stanton.

Which then leaves us with Ruggiano. He offers better protection behind Stanton because not only has he demonstrated he has pop in his bat, he is a pretty good high pitch hitter and if a pitcher walks Stanton to get to Ruggiano, his control may slip a bit and he could very well leave a pitch hanging for Ruggiano to do something with. Even if that doesn’t play out, Ruggiano is a better option behind Stanton than anyone else in the lineup and it is time for Redmond to recognize that and scrap the Dobbs experiment.

Speaking of Greg Dobbs, it is time to get Joe Mahoney some time in at 1B. Not only does he offer a big defense target for the defense over there, but he is a lefty bat with lots of pop. If he could get going, he too could offer something this lineup is lacking – the ability to score runs in bunches and drive in runs.

The Marlins don’t strike out – which is a good thing. They are currently rated 6th in all of baseball with a 6.83 K per game average. What is more telling though is that they are 3rd in the league with regards to sacrifices per game – the Fish are sporting a 0.61 average for sacs per game; only San Francisco (0.72) and San Diego (0.76) are above them.

So what gives? Well, there has been an attempt to call the Marlins LOB City, but they are not the worst. Their current average is 13.67 LOB per game, 15th in MLB (the worst is Detroit 18.71). The team is putting the ball in play, getting sacrifices when it needs to, and is right in the middle when it comes to leaving men on base. Here’s why – hits per game. The Marlins are 30th in MLB with a 6.72 average. The best? Detroit with a 10.24 average – which is why their LOB average is so high, When you hit that much a game, you are guaranteeing that you will leave men on.

The input from the Marlins is low but they are definitely maximizing their output as much as they can. They are putting the ball in play, they are not striking out, they do sac to get runners over, but they just aren’t hitting enough to score runs. Very rarely do the Marlins actually get more than one hit per inning – as their average testifies. So, what is the solution? Bunch up all the power you have and give it a chance to make a bigger splash.

Redmond has spread out his power bats a bit trying to generate scoring opportunities in each inning but it flat out doesn’t work. The Marlins need to isolate their power and give themselves a chance to score in bunches every couple of innings or so. To do that, they need to have Stanton protected by Ruggiano, the only guy proven right now to hit with power. They can then follow him with Mahoney or Dobbs. Then turn the lineup over again with the bottom of the order.

Basically, the Marlins have a plethora of #2 slot hitters – guys who can hit behind a runner on base, but not necessarily have the ability to drive them in. If you look at those types of hitters on this roster, you have Donovan Solano, Placido Polanco, Rob Brantly, Chris Coghlan. Juan Pierre is a leadoff hitter and Adeiny Hechavarria is inconsistent to this point to really have a proper appraisal of what kind of a hitter he can be. He may be a #2 guy, but he can hit with some pop from time to time, too. If he can continue to cut down on his K rate, he may offer some interesting upside to complement his stellar defense.

All of this is prologue towards Logan Morrison’s eventual return. What kind of a hitter he will be once he returns remains to be seen, but he has the promise and the ability to be a major offensive threat while holding down 1B. With his return, he could be better served to bat behind Stanton or even in front of him. The core of the Marlins power then becomes Ruggiano, Stanton, and Morrison but until that day arrives, the Marlins will have to take their chances with what they have.

Another good thing to keep in mind is that Stanton is a notoriously slow starter. He usually fares poorly in April but gets hotter as the season moves along. He has the ability to carry a team’s offense, but that probably won’t surface until he gets more ABs and gets hot moving towards May.

Keep an eye on Christian Yelich, too. He is not healthy yet, but he will get some ABs in AA Jacksonville. If he gets hot down there, and Juan Pierre continues this “funk” he is in, the Marlins may be tempted to call up the wunderkid and see what he can do. Yes, there is the possibility that we don’t see him anytime until after the All Star Break so that the clock is not started early on his arbitration but if the Marlins are serious about winning (ahem, Jeffrey Loria) then they will make that call much like they did with Jose Fernandez.

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Anger and Frustration Abounds, But Marlins Remain Compelling

April 10, 2013 in Regular Season

Ok, I admit it. I am a Marlins fan.

For whatever reason, I have this team fixed to my DNA. I am bound to watch and check the standings, stats, box scores, and any other nook and cranny to see how this team is performing.

And some of my ilk have thrown their hands up and are protesting. Well, protesting in their own way – which means they refuse to buy tickets or anything that would directly contribute to Jeffrey Loria’s pocketbook.

I recently went to Opening Night to see the Marlins get shut down by the Braves, 2-0, and only getting 2 hits. I left early because I had to work the next day and didn’t feel a comeback mounting. That said, I felt the Marlins threatened a lot more than the 2 hits they got. Last night, against the Braves again, the Marlins seemed to be able to mount enough pressure to make the game compelling despite another loss 3-2.

The Marlins offense is the missing component here. They rank #23 in MLB in hits (56) and #30 in RBIs (15). They flat out aren’t driving in runs but they are putting the ball in play – they are #21 in Ks (55). They have only scored 16 runs (rank #30) but have only given up 32 runs (ranks #17 in MLB) with a staff 3.88 ERA.

We know that this team is not going to score in bunches or score tons of runs. It is going to take a lot of hits to move guys around and score runs. That means, this team is not a compelling watch for most baseball audiences. Sure, they will pitch and defend very well, but they are just not going to get the big hits you want to see to drive in runs and drop 5, 6, or 7 runs in a game normally. Yet, I find that I am more compelled to watch this team this year than even last year. Why?

Most of the Marlins faction is divided on the issue of the team owner, Jeffrey Loria. Their allegiance to the team is being strained because of the way this team is managed. In listening to Larry Beinfest last night, there is little to think that anything will change. There is not a proclamation that the Marlins want to keep Giancarlo Stanton here long term; even Tommy Hutton suggested that he thinks Stanton would like to return to southern California. Yet, we know that guys like Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick are waiting it out in AA Jacksonville for their call up. When looking at the talent of Jose Fernandez, and seeing what Yelich did in Spring Training arguably being the Marlins’ best player, there is a lot of hope for the future.

Sure, this team gutted its roster from last year. Most of the players that left were only here for one year, so it is rather confusing to see where the loyalty thing comes into play but it was never about the players departing. It was about the talent that was here and keeping it here. This year’s team, in many ways, is already improved. They play better in every facet even if they are not scoring runs, you can see the battles at the plate. The Marlins don’t have easy outs in the batter’s box.

And maybe this is why this team remains compelling to me. It is a team that battles – much like the teams of the past. The 2003 team battled and had great pitching with timely hitting. They had a young rookie pitcher that dazzled the league and a young LF that got called up and injected much-needed offense into the team. The comparisons of this year’s team to that team may be made; they also have a young rookie pitcher that has a chance to dazzle the league if his debut is any indication. They also have a young outfielder in the minors that could inject offense into this lineup – Cookie Rojas suggested yesterday that the Marlins call up Christian Yelich to hit behind Stanton. This would give someone to protect Stanton and could help “fix” his bat and thus propel the offense. Right now the Marlins are scoring a little over 2 runs a game – not enough to really win a lot of ballgames without amazing pitching performances each night.

This is the situation the Marlins are in. They do have options to improve the team that are available to them right now. The Marlins have always demonstrated that they will make the moves if the team shows it has the potential to make it work. Even last year, Beinfest admitted that he made the Carlos Lee deal to try and get the offense right. Does this team have the core set of players to be competitive? Again, we’ll have to be patient and watch but I suspect that a Christian Yelich sighting may be forthcoming soon.

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