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Matt Dominguez Trade: A Big Mistake For the Marlins

December 21, 2012 in Offseason

In order to try and jumpstart the offense last year, the Marlins traded away their top 3B prospect, Matt Dominguez, to the Astros for Carlos Lee. “El Caballo” was expected to help create more run production for the Marlins, who were also facing  a lot of time without Giancarlo Stanton, to try and get the team out of cardiac arrest.

A few weeks later, the Marlins ended up trading Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. The rest is (bad) history for the Marlins as they began their project of jettisoning their heavy payroll for a fresh start.

Now the Marlins are in a serious bind. They are without a 3B for the immediate and foreseeable future. There is no clear vision at the position and in their desperation, the Marlins have been trying to hammer out some sort of a plan.

Before settling for Polanco, the Marlins were reportedly kicking the tires on several other teams’ young 3B options. They talked to the Rangers about Mike Olt, the Tigers about Nick Castellanos, and the Padres about Jedd Gyorko. They also tried to pry Mark Trumbo from the Angels, but that fizzled. Details about these discussions are not available, but it could be assumed that Ricky Nolasco was tossed in there as a possible scenario.

This is troubling because it shows a front office that panicked and ended up gambling away from a position of severe weakness to broker its future. It also perhaps shows the naivete that this front office may possess in trying to pry away top prospects from other organizations without having much to offer in return. A deal for Olt would make sense if the Rangers believed in Nolasco enough, but that certainly doesn’t seem to be the case. At any rate, the Marlins are settling for a short term fix and with Zack Cox and Derek Dietrich in the system, it remains to be seen what the long term vision will be.

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Rotten Fish: Are the Marlins the Worst Team in Baseball?

August 4, 2012 in Offense, Regular Season

The Marlins are scoring just 2.45 runs per game since the All Star Break. They are 29th in all of baseball in runs scored with only 392 runs scored all season.

They are 26th in all of baseball with a .242 team batting average.

The Marlins are 25th overall in baseball with a .308 on base percentage.

Does this sound like a good team to you? Right now, the Fish are horrible. They are not winning games and are only 8-14 since the All Star Break. The biggest problem is that they are not able to consistently score runs and build leads for their pitching staff. They are also not very good at situational hitting with a .229 average with runners in scoring position (RISP) while their opponents are hitting .269. Only 5 of their position players are above that line, with Giancarlo Stanton being the bottom producer with a .271 RISP average. Carlos Lee is the top hitter with RISP at  .440 when he comes up in that situation.

The Marlins have made strides in a direction; it is arguable whether or not it is the right direction. Hanley Ramirez was moved because of a prima donna like syndrome. His pay was not matching up with his production either, hitting just .198 with RISP. To be honest, this team has had relatively no one meet an expected production level but there is some good news mixed with the bad. Emilio Bonifacio is looking like a solid member of the offense going forward and getting him to play 2B, his natural position, has many clamoring to make comparisons to Luis Castillo – even if he is going to be out with an injury for a bit. Also, Jose Reyes, despite a poor offensive season, has started to come around in the post-Hanley era with a 22 game hitting streak. The defense up the middle is upgraded and the offensive production is there for the foreseeable future.

There are holes at 3B and 1B, places where you want to get run production. Carlos Lee was a quick fix that didn’t pan out because the rest of his team is not very good. 3B is a huge hole with the trade of Matt Dominguez to get Carlos Lee, and also with the departure of Hanley Ramirez who was supposed to fill that void for the foreseeable future. The Fish did get back a strong prospect in Zach Cox from the Cardinals, but MLB.com has him ranked lower than Dominguez.

Stanton is on his way back from rehab and will get a chance to finish strong in RF. CF has a hole with Bonifacio moving to 2B but Gorkys Hernandez may supply a fast, defensive-minded solution while Justin Ruggiano auditions to be an every day player there. Logan Morrison has been a disappointment in LF and it remains to be seen what kind of a player he will be when truly healthy.

Catcher is a disaster as John Buck is not even over the Mendoza line but prospects Rob Brantly, Kyle Skipworth, and JT Realmuto are vying for the future backstop position.

There are some intriguing prospects on the Fish Farm, but they are most likely a year to two away from getting ABs in the bigs. Christian Yelich is among one of the best prospects in all of baseball and he can play anywhere in the OF; he may be an option to hold down LF or CF. Marcell Ozuna has shown some big time power, but needs more refinement.

The fact of the matter is this team doesn’t hit very well and that is at the root of their problems. They get quality starts and even with the struggles of the bullpen, they are starting to get more consistent as the staff has decided to move away from Heath Bell as the closer. Don’t expect too much towards the end of the season, but let’s hope that this team turns it around in the offseason via free agency. This past offseason they made a splash, but drowned and couldn’t swim.

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Marlins Changing Gears, Look to the Future

July 27, 2012 in Fish Farm

One of the large criticisms in the wake of the Hanley Ramirez deal can be why did they make a deal for Carlos Lee that cost them 3B prospect Matt Dominguez?

Dominguez was being primed as the 3B of the future for the Marlins, but his hitting wasn’t amounting to much. Sure, the kid can use the leather and many were comparing him early on to Ryan Zimmerman, but his hitting just never appeared. So the Marlins looked around and grabbed Carlos Lee as a way to bolster their lineup and try and squeeze more runs out of this offense.

Yet, things change. The Marlins didn’t really score runs. They have just 30 runs in the 13 games since the All Star Break. Looking at the depth in the standings, and weighing their payroll and clubhouse situation, a move was not only needed, but justified. Old Marlins fans will be sensitive to this, with the past talks of “fire sales” looming and being drummed up again. There are those who will moan such talk and point to new factors shaping this situation – namely, a new ballpark.

Even the new ballpark can’t save this team. Currently the Marlins are selling only at just above 76% capacity, which puts them at 12th in the league in that stat. They have amassed over 1.4M fans to the new destination so far, averaging 28.5K a night. Considering the fact that even now, the Fish owe $66 million to 8 players next season, a “restructuring” is indeed called for.

You can see the change – Carlos Lee is the barometer. Lee was the last gasp for this team to turn things around and it just didn’t happen. Blame can be pinned on Heath Bell and Hanley’s lack of leadership and maturity, but the fact of the matter is that this team has underperformed. Losing Giancarlo Stanton was no easy thing either, especially considering it took him a while to get started this season.

One of the key things is getting young pitching. Whenever the Marlins “reload” it starts with pitching. See ’97. See 2003. Any great era in Marlins history was built with the foundation of starting pitching. When the 2008 team was coming around, it was very good young throwers that made that team interesting – Scott Olsen, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Dontrelle Willis (the grizzled veteran). Summarizing the motives for the recent deals, Larry Beinfest said, “We wanted to target young starting pitching. We think it is the most coveted thing in the game, the toughest thing to acquire. We’re talking about top-end, young starting pitching.’’

So, with Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Turner, the Marlins feel they were able to do just that. Eovaldi will start Saturday while Turner gets some work with AAA NOLA. Yes, the Fish have done this before (Ryan Dempster, Brad Penny, Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Andrew Miller), some more or less successful than others. Now the challenge for this team is not only to reload, but to rise in the standings and to do so much more quickly now than ever before. In the past, the fan base would be a bit more patient considering the franchise’s tight purse strings and economic situation, but that has changed. The Fish can spend money and in dealing away Hanley, Infante, and Sanchez, they have freed up the funds to spend on another key acquisition. They signed Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell this past offseason and generated quite a bit of hype and they will be expected to do so again.

One of the glaring holes, however, is 3B. Dealing Dominguez for the Lee experiment, since Gaby Sanchez’s bat has become suddenly questionable, and dealing away apparent clubhouse “cancer” Hanley Ramirez has left the Marlins with few options at the hot corner. There is talk of dealing Josh Johnson to the Rangers for Mike Olt, their prized 3B of the future, but if Beinfest’s comments are to be taken seriously they can’t afford to deal Johnson at this point because he is their #1 starter on this staff. Adding into the mix Eovaldi and Turner may net the Marlins a 5th starter with Nolasco, Buehrle, and Johnson anchoring the staff.

Moving forward, the Marlins have to find a way to shore up their bullpen, yet again, and look to get production from 1B and 3B. Moving Bonifacio to 2B seems permanent now, which also opens up some holes in CF. Perhaps a revisit of Chris Coghlan could be in the works, but Ruggiano is putting up pretty strong numbers with full time PT in CF right now. The Marlins have no foreseeable option for 3B on the farm, and Christian Yelich is being groomed for the OF. They do have lots of intriguing pitching options but it remains to be seen if they can stick as starters or fill out roles in the bullpen.

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