No matter how many games the Marlins win, it just seems like the Rockies mirror them. When the Marlins lose, that’s when the Rockies let up and lose. It is a shell game right now for the NL Wildcard. The Marlins sit 5 games out and have the San Francisco Giants merged between them and the leading Rockies.
Is this still a realistic possibility?
There are 26 games left for the Fish. That means they will have to win 18 of them to hit that 90 win plateau, making them have to go 18-8 the rest of the way. That would then mean the Rockies would have to go 13-13 just to force things into a tie to end the season (the Rockies also have 26 games remaining). For a team 17 games over .500, that doesn’t seem to be a likely expectation at this point of the season.
There is still a chance for the Marlins to creep into the wildcard, but yesterday’s blown opportunity by Leo Nunez certainly didn’t help matters.
Yet, what about the division itself? The Phillies are 6 games ahead of the Marlins and at one point, as recent as a few weeks ago, they were looking like the team of destiny from the NL East. All of a sudden, they have lost a few games and the Marlins were able to make up ground. Remember, these two teams have unfinished business at the end of the season – they square off 6 times to end the season. If the Marlins can make up a few more games, say, get it down to a 3 game deficit, they could win 5 of those games and take the lead.
In order for the Marlins to have any chance for the postseason, they have to win each series they play and pick up a few sweeps. A series win each time out would mean 16 wins to end the season. They need to somehow get 18 to hit the 90 win mark, which is usually where the wildcard leader ends up with. The fact that they play the Mets and Nationals a few more times (Mets twice, Nats once) helps. Also, the Marlins may get help from the Cardinals as their success may have them start shutting it down at the end of the season – which increases the Marlins’ chances for a series win there, too.
It’s a tall order, but that is to be expected of a playoff run. The Rockies and Giants also have their work cut out for them, too. The Marlins need a few breaks and really haven’t gotten any yet. They have played their way into the chase but the distance seems to be growing quickly.