Why Jorge Julio Could Succeed As a Marlin
Or, How I Learned to Stop Doubting Larry Beinfest and Love the Roster
Some of you will probably doubt this most recent move, of trading away a talented prospect in Yusmeiro Petit for a veteran closer in Jorge Julio. A veteran at the ripe old age of 28.
Well, grow up. Larry Beinfest has proven himself to be one of the shrewdest GM’s in the game and his scouting staff and assistants and front office personnel - yeah, even the intern who gets everyone coffee! - have proven themselves to be just that much smarter than the rest of MLB. See 2003, 2004, 2005 and even the “fire sale”-d team of 2006. Each year the Marlins have been in serious contention for the postseason.
Whew. Ok, let’s continue.
So, why is this latest move any different?
Well, looking at the spring numbers for Julio, there is reason to cringe. But since when have spring training numbers EVER serve as an accurate barometer of regular season success? Huh, Abe Nunez?
I must confess - I was on board for the Abraham “Five Tool” Nunez movement for our CF of the future. You bet. Hey, I can’t always be right, right?
Then again, I wasn’t thrilled at reports of us looking at Julio either as our stop-gap measure for closer. Yet, I grew into it.
So, why and how did I come to this conclusion, that Jorge Julio is going to be the answer for the Marlins closing woes this year? Simple - In Larry Beinfest I trust.
There seems to be a template here in place, a formula that is almost can’t fail. For the Marlins closer candidate, it goes like this:
- Must have expiring/one year deal
- Must be undervalued
- Must have prior experience
If Beinfest can find a guy that matches those criteria, he has found himself a match and almost without fail, a gem. Need proof?
- 2003 Ugueth Urbina
- 2004 Armando Benitez
- 2005 Todd Jones
- 2006 Joe Borowski
And now, for 2007, Jorge Julio.
You see, all the names listed here fit into this formula - all have criterium 1 in place, all have been undervalued at the time they were acquired (and another way to cite their value is who/what it took to acquire them), and they obviously all had experience.
What is amazing to me is that the Marlins seem to be able to keep finding these guys. Once they land here in Miami, they all of a sudden turn to gold and go on to get big deals elsewhere. Then Beinfest reloads.
So, one reason to have hope with Julio is that he fits into this formula, this template that Beinfest seems to like in assessing who is available. The other thing to consider is that those three criteria work.
- An expiring or one year deal is a “walk year”. Anyone notice how mysteriously players are more motivated going into their free agency year and tend to have a “career year”? Well, it is all in order to get that big, fat paycheck - right Mr. Beltran? Jorge is in the final year of his deal - and will be looking to impress as he wants to end up with at least 200 saves - and he is only at 99 right now.
- Julio was very much undervalued. The DBacks are committed to Jose Valverde as their closer and seem to not have a place for Julio - which is why the DBacks were shopping him. Trading him for Petit may seem costly, but the Marlins are so stacked in starting pitching talent that they don’t notice. Sometimes, they lose guys on those long bus rides in the minors and don’t even notice for weeks.
- Julio was the closer for the Orioles, which would argue against much “experience” but he does have 99 saves over the course of his career (in 124 save opportunities, which puts him at .798 % - for comparison, Mariano Rivera has a .898 %) and has topped over 20 three times in his 6 year career.
In other words, if Beinfest likes him, and it isn’t costing us too much in the acquisition cost or even having him on payroll ($2.1M), I don’t really see the downside.
The other positive is that this solidifies the bullpen and the roles of the young guys in there. It shortens the game by forcing us to really find consistency for innings 7 and 8 as well - and with the talent the Marlins have added, they should be able to meet this objective much more quickly and more often than they did last season.
Fan Favorite Wood Makes Roster
Jason Wood, best known for his game winning pinch hit single in the final game against Philly, is now a member of the parent club’s roster at the young age of 37. ‘Bout time because this guy has hung with it and shown that he can flat-out hit.
Right-Said-Fredi, as I like to call him (not to his face, obviously!), really likes Wood’s compact swing and also visualizes the minor league vet as a pinch hitting option off the bench. Hitting .415 will get you to turn some heads.
Another journeyman, Lee Gardner, has also earned his way onto the opening day roster while posting a flawless 13.1 IP, with no earned runs and a 2-0 record.
Also being classified as “shocking” news, the Marlins have announced that de Aza will be their opening day centerfielder. The 22 year old will get a chance to start his big league career as a rookie this season, but let’s hope he is not another Scott Pose and the comparisons to Juan Pierre are warranted. He looked very sharp this spring hitting .364, the second highest average on the team (behind Wood), and only getting K’d 5 times in 44 ABs while scoring 8 runs, stealing 4 bases (out of 6) and amassing an OBP of .383. He was easily the best looking CFer in camp for the Marlins with the most upside.
Ex-Marlin Urbina Sentenced to 14 Years in Jail
From news about a new closer to news about an old closer - this time, it’s very dark.
Ugueth Urbina, known for his cardiac-like saves during the 2003 season for the Marlins (acquired from the Rangers for prospect Adrian Gonzalez) and his postgame kisses with Pudge Rodriguez, will now be known for being locked up.
Reports from Venezuela are that Urbina was involved in a group that attacked 5 workers on Urbina’s family ranch and attempted to kill them. The group attacked the workers with machetes on Oct. 16, 2005 - of which Urbina had denied being a part of. Urbina claimed to be asleep when the attacked happened.
Despite the plea, the court ruled that Urbina is to go behind bars for 14 years. From the bullpen to the pen.
Marlins Land Jorge Julio
“With me and Julio down by the schoolyard…”
I never understood that song, but it does provide a good sound bite. Kind of like this latest move where the Marlins acquired Jorge Julio from the Diamondbacks for Yusmeiro Petit.
In one move, the Marlins solve the problem of their bullpen by adding an experienced closer and also solidify their starting rotation.
Julio immediately becomes the closer, and with 99 career saves he has 95 more than the other Marlin candidates for the position (Tankersley has 3, Lindstrom has 0 and Gregg has 1). He also has 345Ks in 357.2IP along with a 4.20 ERA.
This also congeals the bullpen, as now the candidates to close are going to be in set-up roles, and the Marlins can take their time and see what each guy can do in certain situations. Julio has one year left on his contract, and the Marlins could be in a position to groom their next closer this season.
As for the rotation, Sergio Mitre now takes over as the #5 starter as the season breaks while Yusmeiro Petit, the other candidate, is now shipped off to Arizona. Petit had started turning heads this spring, but has struggled of late - the Marlins are not sure what to expect from the prospect. As for Mitre, he has been able to put together some very good outings and has been getting sharper with each time out.
Hill will be missed
Under Perry Hill, there have been many gold gloves. Orlando Cabrera in 2001, Luis Castillo grabbed three from 2003-2005, Derek Lee recieved his first in 2003 under Hill’s guidance and Mike Lowell recieved his first in 2005.
Even more impressive was how he handled last season’s staff of rookies, which posted the third best fielding percentage in team history at .983. The best ever was .987 in 2003, on their way to the franchise’s second world title.
You can bet Perry Hill will be missed.
He came over as a member of the Expos and Torborg’s staff when Jeffrey Loria took over as Marlins owner. He was immediately hailed by the Marlins players who were already gifted fielders but where made even better by Hill’s tutelage. Mike Lowell, Derek Lee, Luis Castillo, and even Alex Gonzalez - who didn’t get a gold glove but was in contention each season with his slick fielding - all of them praised Hill for his ability to push them and improve them each season.
On the positive side, Hill is retiring and will spend time with his family. Also, his stamp on the Marlins instructional program will remain in-tact, as his teachings have filtered their way down the system. Also, new hire Andy Fox, the former Marlins utility man, worked with Hill for two seasons and will build upon Hill’s program.
Still, Perry Hill will be missed. He has been through a lot with the Marlins, and each year he dedicated himself to being the top instructor in his field.
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