It can be done. That is the sentiment around here at Marlinsnation. We all believe in this team, just not necessarily in their ability to make the postseason right now.
The Wild Card race has tightened up with 4 teams within 3 games of the top spot that the Astros currently hold. Even the Brewers have a decent shot at 5 games back. The four teams? All NL East residents: Nationals, Phillies, Marlins and Mets.
Right now, I figure the magic number is 92: the amount of wins it will take to seal up a wild card bid. The Astros has 92 last season and the Marlins had 91 back in ’03.
That leaves the Marlins with a task of going 34-16 through these final games. Can it be done? Yes. The Marlins certainly have the talent to make that kind of a run. But it would also be the best baseball they have played all year – and being the most consistent.
They just came off an anti-climatic road trip of 4-5, but got the win last night against the D’Backs and are now 5-5 over their last 10 games. They are 12-8 over their last 20 games which would only get them to 24-16 if they projected that same percentage over the next 20. That wouldn’t cut it.
But it is not impossible. The Marlins had a similar run in 2003 in which they went 35-16: from June 18th to August 18th (thanks, MarlinAddict). To have any chance of replicating the feat of that season, the Marlins will have to repeat the feat here.
There are 16 series left for the Marlins. That means they have to take each series and only suffer 1 loss in each one from now on just to have a shot at winning the wild card. 8 of them will be against their NL East foes, including a final series at home against the Atlanta Braves.
Can the Marlins do it? Can they play their most consistent baseball of the year when it matters the most? We’ll soon find out.