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Best approach: stand pat
The options for a deal for AJ Burnett has gotten more narrow – despite his recent success and the fact that the Marlins seem to be leaning towards taking Lowell out as part of the attachment for any deal. It seems the Red Sox and the White Sox are in a bidding war, right now, for Burnett. But the only piece of laundry that AJ should be wearing is a jersey that has “Marlins” written across the front.
I know, I know. You are probably thinking why I had a change of heart. I haven’t. I always have liked and respected AJ’s talent; it was just his inconsistency that drives me crazy. And his seemingly poisoned tongue that looks to slash at this organization. But winning and hope can change things – or at least put them on hold.
AJ is gone after this season. No doubt. The Marlins know this, AJ knows this, the Yankees know this. The debate is or has always been, should the Marlins trade AJ and at least get something for him in return? To lose Pavano for sandwich picks in the amateur draft is ok; but to do it two years in a row? And for a talent like AJ Burnett? Not exactly capatilizing on his value for this franchise.
Of course, there is another way to define value. If the Marlins can pull it together and get into the playoffs, they have a very good chance of winning the whole gosh-darned thing with AJ and Beckett taking the ball. Just ask the DBacks how Randy and Schilling fared for them in the playoffs a few years back. Or even the Cubs when Wood and Prior are healthy. The fact is, teams that excell in the post season have fireballers in their rotations and in their pens. I see the Braves nodding in the back of the room.
So yes, to keep AJ means you will lose him for basically nothing at the end of the season. But to keep him means you risk winning it all. You are in a better position to do so with AJ here than by trading him – no matter how successful you think Jason Vargas will be or any other call up. And with Dontrelle hitting a rough patch, this may be the most approriate time to hold onto AJ.
For the Marlins, standing pat is the best situation. It only assures a greater possibility of winning for this team and there really isnt a knock down deal for AJ out there. And when the Marlins attach Lowell’s contract the focus is less about talent but more about contract flexibility. This means the talent that will be netted in return is less likely to contribute at the current level already in-house. As for Lowell, I dont think dealing him may be in the best interest from a PR perspective let alone he is starting to hit the ball again (over his last 7 games he is 8/25 with 1 HR and 7 RBI).
With the Marlins moving up in the wild card standings while only going 5-5 on this road trip and the recent offensive explosion, it seems both Jack McKeon and Bill Robinson have managed to secure their jobs for the meantime.
Maybe all of this is a sign. Maybe it is just dumb luck. Maybe, it is time for the Marlins to finally rise to the occasion. Either way you look at it, standing pat keeps the possibility for it to continue in place.
Still Alive
Think back to late August of last year. The Marlins were floundering, 7 games out of the wild card race and even farther back of the division-leading Braves. Paul Lo Duca and Guillermo Mota had done all they could for us during their time here, and Juan Encarnacion was contributing, despite an injured shoulder that would require surgery after the season.
And yet all they could muster was 7 games out of the WC. The trade that was supposed to change the season had been made, and the effects had been minimal. The same inconsistency we have been complaining about this season had been killing the team last seaspn as well. Few people thought this team had enough time (or consistency) to make a run.
Then, all of a sudden, the team sweeps the Rockies, aided by some clutch heroics from Enc, and parlays that into a 9-game winning streak and was only 2 games out of the WC, ready to make their run at the WC-leading Cubs, who were about to come to town for a 3-game series.
Disaster struck. Hurricane Frances washed out the series and quite possibly the Marlins’ playoff hopes to go with it. The resurgent team that was ready to charge into the postseason was stopped, but not because it wasn’t good enough, or the Lo Duca deal didn’t give it a spark, but because 30 games in 27 days was just too much to ask for.
And that is exactly what this team needs this year. A spark. Something to light a fire and motivate this team to have fun, like they did in 2003 and for the most part 2004, and charge to the postseason, where this team is built to win the championship. We’re only 5.5 games out of the wild card in mid-July. There is still hope. This is why I call for Jack McKeon and Bill Robinson to be fired.
We’ll always be in debt to Jack because of the job he did in turning around this team and leading it to the WS title in 2003, but he has simply worn out his welcome. At every one of his MLB stops he has done so, and here is no different. His old-school managing style has rubbed off the wrong way on most of the team and several have already spoken out against Jack. Players just aren’t having fun anymore on the team like they used to. One player called the club a “bootleg organiztion.” A manager’s job, for the most part, is to motivate the team to play (and have fun), and of course, to a lesser extent, fill out the lineup cards, make substitutions, double switches, etc. during the course of the game. Jack’s magic hasn’t worked this year and, like I said, the team isn’t having fun.
Carlos Delgado was supposed to be the bat that put us over the top, and instead, the same inconsistency that plagued us last year continues to hurt the team this year. This leads us to Bill Robinson. Delgado has been everything we hoped for this season and more, hitting.296 with 18 HRs and 69 RBIs. However, his bat has been offset by the poor production of Mike Lowell. A .227 BA and only 4 HRs and 36 RBIs and we’re paying him $8 million a year. He’s a great person and great for the community, but not great on the field this season. If he had put up numbers anywhere near his career averages, we’d be in 1st place right now. It isn’t entirely his fault, either. Part of the blame must go to Bill Robinson. He still hasn’t fixed the flawed mechanics in Lowell’s swing (and his stance at the plate), despite a half-season (a full season dating back to the 2nd half last year) of underproduction. During this time, the slump has gotten into his head and now will be even tougher for him to get out of, and he hasn’t been putting up the power numbers he used to in the past, part of the reason why we’ve hit so few HRs this year.
A new manager and a new hitting coach should be the answer to this team’s inconsistency. A guy like Tony Pena could have an influence on the Latin players in the clubhouse like Ozzie Guillen did and motivate this team to have fun again. A new hitting coach (possibly Andre Dawson or Tony Perez?) could fix the mechanics in Lowell’s swing or (if he’s traded) have more of a good influence on the hitters than Robinson ever had. This could be the spark that charges this team to the playoffs. A trade wouldn’t do it. We have nothing to fix through a trade (even if Lowell is traded), except possibly bullpen help. Even if a trade did occur for a bat, who’s to say the player won’t be influenced by the poor atmosphere in the clubhouse on the field?
This team, on paper, should be in 1st place. A new manager (Tony Pena) and a new hitting coach (Dawson or Perez) could spark them well on their way.
Marlins sellers, not buyers
Well, here we are at 45 and 45. 7 games back of the Nationals and not looking to climb up any time soon. The Marlins just lost 3 of 4 against the Phillies, a team, until recently, we have owned. This is a bad bad bad barometer. It smells a lot like underachievement, but that is the state of this team right now: smelling like a rotting fish.
More fun than a barrel of fish? No. This season has been misery. Sure, we are even and just as successful as we have been at losing, or is that successful at failing, not sure. (Then again, batting .500 in baseball is legendary…) The Marlins have dropped more games than a pimp on Lincoln. And that isn’t a good thing at this point and surely not as satisfying. For anyone involved.
So, it should come as no surprise that the Marlins are involved in trade rumors; as we see Burnett being shopped around and even Mike Lowell being attached to him like some kind of strange set of conjoined twins.
The Marlins, for all their hype, have not earned the right to think about the postseason. The front office gave them the tools and the weapons necessary, but this team, for whatever reason, has lacked the ability to execute. Despite having one of the better offenses in the National League (#1 with .274 batting average) the Marlins just cannot score runs. Even having one of the better pitching staffs (4.12 team ERA, #8 in NL) hasn’t helped close the gap. The wins are coming just as often as the losses, and the Marlins are forced to think about selling as opposed to buying. Closer and closer to the cellar.
Could this team turn it around? Yes. They have the talent – even if a major deal comes down the pike. In fact, it could be argued, or perhaps hoped, that addition may come via subtraction with a trade here. One thing remains, the Marlins have to look to the future once again – one that does not seem to have any hint of a playoff run in it.
Moehler solidifies starting spot
Brian Moehler has come a long way. And yet, this seems familiar. Why? Because Moehler has been pitching for a while now, quietly and successfully.
In his days in Detroit, from ‘96 through ‘02, he was able to amass 48 wins in 131 starts. From ‘97 to ‘00, he was able to amass double digit wins each season with Detroit. Over his career, he has had a 4.43 ERA, making stops in Cincinnati, Houston and now in Florida along the way.
Earning his third win on the year, Moehler – despite having pretty solid numbers – seems to be more hard luck than lucky at this point. Yet, he keeps pitching and giving the Marlins solid outings every fifth day.
The Marlins are 38-7 when they score 4 runs or more. That is best in the majors. Moehler, by contrast, has a 3.16 ERA this season and only has 3 wins to show for it. The Marlins have scored 6 total runs in Moehler’s 6 losses; 2 of those coming by 1 run. But Moehler keeps pitching.
In fact, with Olsen now being placed into the starting lineup and Leiter being moved into the bullpen, will Moehler keep his starting spot when Valdez returns? Who knows. But with Moehler’s consistent pitching in place of an injured Ismael Valdez, the Marlins have had a chance to win. It is hard to argue that the Marlins would have been better off with Valdez out there (Moehler’s K/BB is better: 1.88 vs. Valdez’s ‘04 1.37 as well as Moehler’s 3.16 ERA against Valdez’s 4.50 ‘04 ERA)). And this gives the Marlins an interesting problem – send Valdez into the bullpen or Moehler.
Right now, Moehler has been putting together quality starts and has been arguably the Marlins second most consistent pitcher right behind Willis. He has solidified his starting spot with the Marlins – for how long, will be up to Moehler. And that may be his biggest victory yet.
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